The Leitz Photographica Auction House will be holding its 40th auction where a rare Leica 0-Series owned by Oskar Barnack could break current world records. The Leica 0-Series No.105 was produced in 1923 and was a personal camera of Oskar Barnack. Approximately 20 examples of the 0-Series were manufactured as prototypes before the original Leitz 35mm camera was launched in the mid-1920s - only a dozen are estimated to still be in existence today.
If you fancy adding a bit of history to your camera collection you'll need quite a bit of cash as starting bids for the camera are 1 million Euros with the camera expected to sell for somewhere between €2.500.000. Another Leica 0 -Series camera produced in 1923 was a sensational highlight at the Leitz Photographica auction in 2018 where the camera achieved a record-breaking hammer price of 2.4 million euros and still holds the record for the highest price ever paid for a camera sold by auction. If you want to see if this record will be broken in the latest auction, you can watch events unfold over on YouTube (a link will appear on the auction website shortly before the event begins). The 40th Leitz Photographica Auction will be held at Leitz Park, Wetzlar, Germany at 10am GMT on 11 June 2022.
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Preliminary research from Israel suggests that a fourth COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster shot may be ineffective against breakthrough infection from the Omicron variant. The authors of a study that looked at the effectiveness of a fourth Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna shot against Omicron said they were releasing data early on Monday to keep the public up to date with the latest developments in vaccine research. “Despite a significant increase in antibodies after the fourth vaccine, this protection is only partially effective against the Omicron strain, which is relatively resistant to the vaccine,” Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, the lead researcher on the study, told reporters Monday (January 17, 2022). The study included 154 health care workers at Sheba Medical Center who received their fourth Pfizer shot. Another 120 workers received a fourth dose of the Moderna vaccine, and a control group of 6,000 workers were not given a fourth booster shot of either vaccine.
Regev-Yochay said that a third shot resulted in "much higher antibodies, neutralization and the antibodies were not just higher in quantity but also in quality" than the second shot — but the fourth shot did not produce similar results. "These are very preliminary results. This is before any publication, but we're giving it out since we understand the urgency of the public to get any information possible about the fourth dose," Regev-Yochay explained. "We have a follow-up of the Pfizer vaccine for two weeks now, and we have a follow-up of the Moderna vaccine just for one week at this time point. And what we see is that the Pfizer vaccine, after two weeks, you see an enhancement or increase in the number of antibodies and neutralizing antibodies — a pretty nice increase. It's even a little bit higher than what we had after the third dose," she said. "Yet, this is probably not enough for the Omicron." Regev-Yochay added that slightly fewer infections were observed among those who got the fourth vaccine shot compared to the control group, which may indicate there's a small benefit to letting the people most vulnerable to COVID-19 get a fourth booster. "I think that the decision to allow the fourth vaccine to vulnerable populations is probably correct," she said. "It may give a little bit of benefit, but probably not enough to support the decision to give it to all of the population, I would say." International bodies are warning governments and public health authorities against requiring a fourth vaccine shot. At a press briefing last week, the European Medicines Agency said there was no need for a second booster, even warning that repeated vaccine doses could actually weaken people's immune systems. Boosters “can be done once, or maybe twice, but it’s not something that we can think should be repeated constantly,” Marco Cavaleri, the EMA head of biological health threats and vaccines strategy, said, according to Bloomberg. “We need to think about how we can transition from the current pandemic setting to a more endemic setting,” Cavaleri added. The EMA advised countries to leave more time between booster programs and to tie them to the cold season on each hemisphere. The World Health Organization has also warned that repeated booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines are "not a sustainable global strategy," raising concerns about the supply of vaccine doses. “With near- and medium-term supply of the available vaccines, the need for equity in access to vaccines across countries to achieve global public health goals, programmatic considerations including vaccine demand, and evolution of the virus, a vaccination strategy based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable,” the WHO said last week.
What's worse is that these numbers are typically at the low end of the range and suggest the unemployment level may only improve marginally from here and typically preceded a recession. But more importantly, interest rates were much higher, which means the Fed is now very far behind the curve. That means the Fed will now be raising rates at peak employment and economic growth. In reality, the time for them to raise rates has passed. Ending QE, raising rates, and running off the balance sheet will be more than the economy and the markets can handle. It will be a huge mistake.
The last time the U6 measure of unemployment was at 7.3% was in late 2018. The Federal Funds rate was at 2.4%, not its current 0.08%. CPI was also well under 3%. So to say that the Fed is behind on the curve may be a massive understatement.
Inflation May Be Cooling It seems that rates will need to rise aggressively from here, but only the short end of the curve. I think that is less likely to happen on the longer end of the yield curve. The market will realize that an overly aggressive Fed tightening monetary policy at the wrong time will raise the risk of the Fed over tightening and causing a recession. That is why 10-Yr rates have risen so slowly in recent weeks following very high inflation reports. NEXT WEEK, the CPI report will likely show that the pace of inflation cooled in December. The ISM manufacturing survey showed that prices paid in December fell sharply, 14.2 points. That was the most significant decline since October 2011. That would suggest that the CPI also fell sharply in December, as the two tend to move in the same direction. Currently, a Reuters poll shows that estimates are for the CPI to climb in December to 7% from 6.8% in November. A weaker than expected CPI may push rates on the longer end of the yield curve lower, resulting in further yield curve flattening.
Who is Cai?
Cai Niangniang is a pseudonym for the model, who is 28 years-old and from Leshan in the western province of Sichuan. And in her weibo statement, she said she did not deserve to be cyber-bullied because of her appearance. “My looks were given to me by my parents,” she wrote. “I’m just an ordinary worker doing my job.” Netizens had attacked her for days, with some accusing her of being “unpatriotic” and “uglifying Chinese people”. Such was the public interest that Three Squirrels removed the ads online and apologised, saying the model’s makeup had been chosen to suit her features, not to make her appear in a certain way. “Regarding the opinion that the model does not fit the mainstream’s aesthetic taste and makes the public feel uncomfortable, we are sincerely sorry,” the company pleaded. What’s the problem? Angry Chinese netizens users have recently accused several – mostly Western – companies of promoting racist stereotypes through their ads. Prominent fashion photographer Chen Man was forced to apologise for her “ignorance” in November amid a similar controversy over an ad for the French luxury brand, Dior, that featured another ‘narrow-eyed’ model. Mercedes-Benz and Gucci have also been targeted for similar situations. State media has often weighed in too – as did the China Daily, the official English-language newspaper, in an opinion piece on the Cai Niang Niang saga in late December. “As a domestic brand, Three Squirrels should have known about the sensitivity of Chinese consumers to how they are portrayed in advertisements,” it said. “For too long, Western criteria for beauty, and Western likes and dislikes have dominated aesthetics.” Many netizens have argued that ad campaigns should feature models with rounder eyes and fairer skin – more typical ideals of beauty in China. Others, however, expressed an alternative view: that such ‘ideals’ are themselves Western imports and that narrower eyes should be considered equally beautiful. Members of the Federal Reserve indicated at their mid-December policy meeting that they were increasingly uneasy about high inflation, while envisioning an accelerated timetable for raising interest rates this year. This was revealed in the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting on Wednesday evening.
Most central bank officials foresee three rate hikes before 2022. In September, about half of officials still believed that rate hikes could wait until 2023. In general, participants noted that, given their individual outlook for the economy, the labour market and inflation, it may be justified to raise interest rates earlier or at a faster rate than they previously thought. The minutes also revealed growing concerns among participants that higher inflation could persist and force a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve, especially as businesses and consumers increasingly begin to expect prices to fall quickly. continue to rise. For months, Fed executives maintained that the higher price pressures in 2021 were mainly caused by supply chain bottlenecks and would subside on their own. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell already said in the run-up to the meeting that he was much less convinced about this. Policy-making committee officials broadly shared his view. Their concerns were reflected in the decision to scale back or phase out bond purchases more quickly. The Fed wants to end this program before raising short-term interest rates to curb inflation. The earlier end of asset purchases - in March instead of June - opens the door for the US central bank to raise interest rates at its second scheduled meeting this year, in mid-March. The next Fed meeting is on January 25 and 26. The pace of decreasing monthly purchases has accelerated from the current $15 billion per month to $30 billion per month. The Fed noted that the pace could be adjusted where necessary. Some officials also believed the Federal Reserve should start shrinking its $8.76 trillion portfolio of bonds and other assets relatively soon once it has started raising interest rates. The federal funds rate remained at 0.00 to 0.25 percent as expected. The discount rate was maintained at 0.25 percent. Christmas is over! The countdown has begun! And with it the days of reflection, looking back and looking ahead. That is exactly what we do every day. Likewise today; what has the Bitcoin price done in recent days and what does that say about the (near) future? We use the charts in which each candle represents one hour, then 1 day and then one week. Prices are in dollars. Rising line The downward trend that had started a long time ago has broken up on 21 December. See blue circle. It did not cause general euphoria, but slowly the higher regions were sought out again. The rising grey trend line seemed to act as support, but that support turned out to be too weak on the 26th. As a ceiling, it has been looked up twice, but from last night at 7:00 PM the line was turned back.
Grey area If we look at a slightly longer term, on the daily chart, we see that the price is moving within a certain grey area, the upside of which has recently been tested. If there is no further decline from this point, and the middle line (USD 48,600 limit / EUR 42,900) is thus respected, this is a sign that the upward direction can be maintained and that trading at a slightly higher level.
Solid floor
On the weekly chart, we see the same grey area that the price is now in. The horizontal line is also visible, which (as described above) clearly shows that it has been honoured for a long time (from the beginning of this year). We also see a Moving Average, but now one that uses the past 50 candles as an average (blue line). This blue line also coincides with the horizontal line on the daily chart. Again a signal to take into account a solid floor. Flywheel A solid floor sounds nice, but it doesn't mean that the price will go up. In recent times, outbreaks upwards have been rather weak. A truly bullish sentiment should be triggered by breaking news. First, the $50,000 limit (EUR 44,100) can be claimed and then, to get out of the grey area, the $52,000 limit (EUR 45,900). That could act as a flywheel, triggering an increasingly bullish sentiment. If that doesn't happen, there's a good chance of sideways movement within this zone, with the danger that if the $48,600 floor is broken, it could quickly go downhill. With the first limit at the bottom of 45,500 (40,100 euros) and the second limit 42,000 dollars (37,000 euros). Gold is a commodity that has historically been viewed as a good hedge against inflation, which is why the precious metal’s price performance over the last year has been a bit puzzling. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which is intended to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, is down over 8% year-to-date and has been a major underperformer. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have persisted throughout the year and interest rates have been held at historic lows, which in theory should have led to a strong year for gold investors.
While this commodity certainly hasn’t been the strongest performer as of late, there are still plenty of narratives that support the possibility of a gold rally in 2022. If we continue seeing alarming signs of inflation and if nominal yields are held lower, stocks that offer exposure to the safe-haven commodity could have room to run. That’s why it’s a good idea to get familiar with some of the best gold stocks in the market as we head into the new year. 1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) Gold mining stocks offer an interesting way to gain exposure to the commodity, as they typically will rise and fall with the price of gold, yet can also remain profitable companies even if the price of gold is declining. Newmont Corporation is certainly one of the best options to consider if you are interested in gold miners, as it’s the world’s largest gold producer and a company with a rock-solid balance sheet. It’s also a stock that offers exposure to copper, which is another commodity that has been a strong performer in 2021 and could continue benefitting from high demand as the global economy recovers. Newmont has assets and operations in North America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Africa, and generates the majority of its revenue from gold from those locations. It’s the type of investment that market participants love to buy when there is volatility and uncertainty at play in the market, which means it’s a great pick if you think next year could be a bumpy ride for the economy. It’s also a stock that offers a very attractive dividend yield of 3.75%, which is certainly appealing given inflation concerns. This could be one of the first stocks to rally should gold prices head higher in the coming months, which absolutely makes it worth watching as we begin the new year. 2. Royal Gold Inc (NASDAQ:RGLD) Another way to add exposure to gold via equities is with gold streaming and royalty companies like Royal Gold. These are businesses that pay fees to mining companies in exchange for either a percentage of the mine’s revenue or the ability to purchase precious metals in the future at a fixed price. This is an attractive model because it allows Royal Gold to potentially take advantage of gains in the precious metals sector without a lot of the costs and risks that are associated with mining operations. The company has a diverse portfolio with revenue from 44 producing properties, and over $1.1 billion of liquidity provides plenty of room for Royal Gold to seek out new deals. The stock is also worth a look thanks to its long history of dividend growth, as Royal Gold announced its 21st consecutive annual dividend increase back in November. After a 17% dividend increase, the stock is certainly one of the more attractive gold stocks to consider for 2022. Finally, it’s worth noting that many of the company’s operating counterparties have dealt with issues related to COVID-19 that stunted mining production, which means a rebound is likely on the cards next year. 3. Franco-Nevada Corp (NYSE:FNV) Finally, we have another gold-focused royalty and streaming company called Franco-Nevada Corp. The company claims to have the most diverse royalty and streaming portfolio by asset, operator, and country, which includes 324 mining assets and 82 energy assets. It’s also worth mentioning Franco-Nevada’s balance sheet strength, as it's one of the only companies in the mining industry without any debt. The strong balance sheet and efficient business model has allowed the company to reward long-term shareholders with annual dividend increases for 14 consecutive years, which is certainly another positive to consider. In Q3, Franco-Nevada Corp reported revenue growth of 13% to $316.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 15% to $269.8 million. The company is on its way towards delivering a record-breaking 2021, although the share price is well off highs at this time. It’s certainly one of the best gold stocks to watch in 2022, so keep an eye on how it performs in the coming weeks. The “Red Mansion” case, in which dozens of sex slaves were detained in Shanghai, became a hot topic on Weibo but was quickly deleted. The Shanghai media have avoided the issue. However, the incident has raised concerns about the involvement of many high-ranking CCP figures behind the scenes. In November of this year, the judge who tried the “Xiao Hong Lou” case was fired, attracting netizens’ attention. As a result, it became a new hot search keyword on Weibo in early December. The topic “#beginning and ending of the Xiao Hong Lou case in Shanghai#” received more than 600 million clicks in just a few days. But by the early morning of Dec. 5, 600 million streams were said to have disappeared.
As previously reported by mainland media, the “Little Red House” case took place from 2000 to 2019. When Zhao Fuqiang, a seamster born in a rural area, started his business by running a barbershop in Shanghai to sell sex. The company used bribery, alcohol, and sex to bring in officials of all levels to grow the business. Zhao Fuqiang first forced his wife into prostitution, then forced other women he tricked to satisfy his lust by teaching, imprisoning, and beating them. They provide sexual services to the public, even taking female eggs through a surgical procedure, selling them, and offering surrogacy for Zhao Fuqiang and officials. Zhao Fuqiang married several female victims, then trained them to become sex slave managers in the “Red Mansion.” He also hired the husbands or family members of many sex slaves as security guards or staff. Zhao Fuqiang also installed many hidden cameras in the “Red Mansion” to record photos and videos of officials who came to indulge in debauchery and used them to blackmail. The report also mentions that the female victims called the police for help. Still, they were not accepted, and that some of the women who managed to escape from the “Red Mansion” were brought straight back by the police. In 2019 and 2020, the Shanghai Second Intermediate Court sentenced Zhao to death, and 37 Red Villa managers and other employees received various jail terms. In addition, political, legal, and police officials of the Yangpu District were also convicted. The incident sparked a heated debate on Weibo. Many netizens are shocked that such a horrible forced prostitution case has appeared in today’s society. They question how much the degradation of public power has allowed Zhao Fuqiang to do anything he wants. Others argued that the sentence for Zhao Fuqiang and local officials was too light. An article quoted a former police officer at the Shanghai Public Security Bureau saying that Zhao Fuqiang spent a long time doing business in the Yangpu district. Through money and sex transactions, he had a strong relationship with internal government agencies. Finally, as these relationships were strengthened, he felt that he was then unstoppable. The most senior official convicted in the “Red Mansion” case is Lu Yan, a Standing Committee of the Yangpu CCP District Party Committee and Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission in Shanghai. But public opinion has questioned the accuracy of the amount of money generated by Zhao Fuqiang, said to be around $156 million. When the “Red mansion” case was reported on Weibo, hardly any media in Shanghai reported it. Shanghai is the political seat of Jiang Zemin’s faction in the Chinese Communist Party. It is currently dominated by Xi’s close associate Li Qiang. Therefore, public opinion speculates that the “Red Mansion” case may be related to a power struggle within the CCP. One hundred trillion dollars—that’s 100,000,000,000,000—is the largest denomination of currency ever issued. 1 The Zimbabwean government issued the Z$100 trillion bill in early 2009, among the last in a series of ever higher denominations distributed as inflation eroded purchasing power. When Zimbabwe attained independence in 1980, Z$2, Z$5, Z$10 and Z$20 denominations circulated, replaced three decades later by bills in the thousands and ultimately in the millions and trillions as the government sought to prop up a weakening economy amid spiralling inflation. Shortly after the Z$100 trillion note began circulating, the Zimbabwean dollar was officially abandoned in favour of foreign currencies. From 2007 to 2008, the local legal tender lost more than 99.9 percent of its value (Hanke 2008). This marked a reversal of fortune from independence, when the value of one Zimbabwe dollar equalled US$1.54. Zimbabwe’s extreme and uncontrollable inflation made it the first—and so far only—country in the 21st century to experience a hyperinflationary episode. Hyperinflation devastates people and countries. Zimbabwe, once considered the breadbasket of Africa, was reduced to the continent’s beggar within a few years; its citizens were pushed into poverty and often forced to emigrate. The country’s experience shows how a relatively self-sustaining nation at independence fell victim to out-of-control inflation and the severe erosion of wealth. The causes of Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation, its effects and how it was stopped are particularly instructive. In his seminal work, Phillip Cagan defined hyperinflation as beginning when monthly inflation rates initially exceed 50 percent. It ends in the month before the rate declines below 50 percent, where it must remain for at least a year (Cagan 1956). Zimbabwe entered the hyperinflationary era in March 2007; the period ended when the nation abandoned its currency in 2009 (Chart 1). Bouts of hyperinflation are mostly accompanied by rapidly increasing money supply needed to finance large fiscal deficits arising from war, revolution, the end of empires and the establishment of new states. Hyperinflation, as Cagan defined it, initially appeared during the French Revolution, when the monthly rate peaked at 143 percent in December 1795. More than a century elapsed before hyperinflation appeared again. During the 20th century, hyperinflation occurred 28 times, often associated with the monetary chaos involving two world wars and the collapse of communism (Bernholz 2003). Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation of 2007–09 represents the world’s 30th occurrence as well as the continent’s second bout (after a 1991–94 episode in the Congo).
It is widely expected that a further cut of 100 basis points to 14 percent will follow this week. The policy differs from all economic textbooks. Normally, policymakers try to curb inflation with interest rate hikes. The inflation rate in Turkey is already above 20 percent. Turks took to the streets last weekend to protest the rising cost of living.
Fitch has become the first rating agency to declare that China Evergrande’s overseas bonds are in default after the world’s most indebted developer failed to make a crucial interest payment this week. The announcement marked the most significant moment yet in the developer’s marathon liquidity crisis that has spread to other businesses across the country’s vast real estate sector and fuelled global concerns about the potential impact on China’s economy. Evergrande, which has liabilities exceeding $300bn, missed a Monday deadline to repay bond coupons totalling $82.5m. The group had still not transferred the funds as of Wednesday in New York, according to people familiar with the matter. Fitch stated that the company did not respond to a request for confirmation on the coupon payments, and it was therefore assuming they had not been made. Neither the company nor the Chinese government has confirmed that Evergrande has defaulted on its debts, though the company said on Friday there was “no guarantee” it could meet its debt repayments as it entered a restructuring process with assistance from local government officials. Fitch also stated on Thursday that Kaisa, another heavily indebted developer that failed to repay a $400m bond that matured on Tuesday, was in restricted default. A person familiar with the situation said that Kaisa was close to signing non-disclosure agreements with advisers to investors.
Evergrande’s debt crisis has for months transfixed international bond markets, where it has borrowed heavily and has about $19bn outstanding, compared with $12bn for Kaisa. Evergrande has missed a series of interest payments since late September, but until this week had avoided default by transferring the funds before the end of 30-day grace periods. Separately on Thursday afternoon, Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, told a seminar in Hong Kong that Evergrande’s failure to meet its obligations was a market event and that the rights of investors would be respected. Local private equity companies are increasing their investment in Southeast Asian venture capital businesses, as they see further growth potential in the region. Vietnam, in particular, is one of their favored areas. Korea-headquartered STIC Investments recently decided to participate in the Series E round investment for Tiki, one of Vietnam's largest e-commerce businesses.
The e-commerce company raised about $258 million in the Series E funding, boosting its corporate valuation to nearly $1 billion from the round. Mirae Asset-Naver Asia Growth Fund also participated in the fund raising, alongside global insurance firm AIA, Taiwan Mobile and Yuanta Fund. STIC Investments, which has diverse investment portfolios in the Southeast Asian region, including Vietnam and Malaysia, also stepped up as one of major shareholders of Carousell ― a Singapore-based online market place start-up ― a couple of months ago. The Korean PEF led the latest $100 million round of investment, bringing the start-up's valuation to over $1 billion. STIC Investments was also one of many Korean private equity funds ― Mirae Asset-Naver Asia Growth Fund, LB Investment and LINE Ventures ― that together invested $33 million in Indonesia's online grocery delivery service, HappyFresh. As Indonesia boasts a large population and a fast-growing market, the country has been one of the favorite investment locations among Korean PEFs. Korea Investment Private Equity also injected $200 million into Vietnamese conglomerate Masan Group ― the country's major food and beverage company ― taking a 2 percent to 3 percent stake in the company. IMM Investment invested in Vietnam's Masan Group in 2018; and Vingroup in 2019, along with SK Group. According to Preqin's alternative investment research report, the private equity and venture capital market in 10 Southeast Asian countries has more than doubled over the past five years. The amount of private equity and venture capital invested in the region stood at $37 billion, a 117 percent jump from $17 billion in 2015. Some market insiders say one of reasons why Korean PEFs are actively placing bets in Southeast Asian regions is the growing uncertainty regarding regulatory policies in China. The Southeast Asian countries' large populations along with booming e-commerce platforms looks promising to Korean PEFs in generating solid returns on investment. It has been teetering on the brink of collapse for weeks but China Evergrande, the country's second biggest property developer, could be facing up to doomsday as it admitted it may not be able to meet its financial obligations. With more than US$300 billion in debts, the property developer is dealing with several looming deadlines to pay up, as attempts to save it fall through. An offshore bond payment that China Evergrande initially missed on September 23, but got a 30-day grace period on, is set to expire on Saturday with US$100 million owing. There's another US$60m interest payment too, which wasn't paid when due on September 29, and the grace period is also set to run out. Discussions for a US$5b deal for Hong Kong-listed Chinese developer Hopson to take a majority stake has also fallen through. Credit rating service Moody's has basically given the property developer a junk rating, warning that there are "weak recovery prospects for Evergrande's creditors if there is a default". Experts believe that China Evergrande's collapse is all but inevitable. The Chinese government has been reluctant to bail out the ailing property developer and the People's Bank of China governor Yi Gang has claimed the risk to the economy could be contained. Yet there are 70,000 investors in Evergrande, which has also paused construction on homes for more than 1 million home buyers.
Alarming drop in house prices Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities, warned that China has moved further along the US style global financial crisis (GFC) pathway. China uses the property market to prop up the economy with nearly a third of gross domestic product coming from the industry. Recently, two other Chinese developers, Sinic and Fantasia, have also defaulted on payments. In further bad news, home prices in China dropped in September for the first time in six years, while real estate investment has also tanked for the first time since last year. Evergrande said real estate sales plunged about 97 per cent during peak home-buying season, with the developer selling just US$571m ($791m) since September, a tiny fraction of the US$22b it recorded in the same period last year, reported Bloomberg. If Evergrande's properties flood the market, due to its collapse, it would further drive prices down across the market causing more problems. While the Evergrande situation was already a crisis, Bennett predicted things would get much worse if property prices were to experience even greater drops. "There are the very first signs of that actually happening with prices in the 70 largest cities just reported to have fallen 0.8 per cent. Not a big deal, except they used to rise steadily and impressively. Something is happening that is more profound than a short term situation of one or two large developers being in trouble," he explained. "They are the canary in the mine. They are faltering because the easy win path of the incredible China boom of past decades, is beginning to settle back into a more typical pattern of a mature capitalist economy." Situation continues to unravel Bennett added that China, the world's second largest economy, could well be having a US-style property speculation bubble burst experience. "In the original GFC, high lending to all kinds of construction and property investment (in the US) led to a global financial crisis. China was actually the backstay then to the global economy," he noted. He added that China's continued strong growth during the GFC and the impact that had on all of Asia and Australia, certainly supported the region during the severe US and European downturn. So China's potential downturn could spell bad news for Australia considering it makes billions from the relationship, despite the trade relationships being frosty at times. So wait for doomsday October 23, 2021. Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which stunned gold markets back in 2019 when it purchased 100 tonnes of gold bars in London and then promptly flew the gold back to Warsaw, has just confirmed that it now plans to buy another 100 tonnes of gold during 2022. The news was confirmed this week by Adam Glapiński, president of Poland’s central bank, in a 5 October special interview with Polish magazine ‘Strefa Biznesu’ in advance of the ‘Congress 590’ economic conference in Warsaw. As well as heading the Polish central bank, Glapiński is also an economics professor. While Poland currently holds 230 tonnes of monetary gold reserves and sits in 24 place in the planned addition of 100 tonnes of gold during 2022 would boost the country’s gold reserves to 330 tonnes and catapult Poland up to 18th place in the rankings, ahead of major gold holders such as the UK, Saudi Arabia, Austria, Spain and Thailand. 100 tonnes purchase in 2022 For those thinking ‘didn’t the Polish central bank earlier this year already mention buying 100 tonnes of gold?’, you would be correct. Back in March 2021, Adam Glapinski in an with Polish magazine Sieci said that Poland planned to buy 100 tonnes of gold over the coming years: “Over the course of a few years we want to buy at least another 100 tonnes of gold and keep it in Poland as well,” However, what has changed is that this gold buying timeline has now been compressed from a few years into 1 year, and the NBP will now execute the plan in 2022, with the NBP’s operating strategy being guided by the rule of thumb – as official reserve assets of the Polish central bank grow over time, it will continue to buy more and more gold using a target percentage of gold to total reserve assets. However, what has changed is that this gold buying timeline has now been compressed from a few years into 1 year, and the NBP will now execute the plan in 2022, with the NBP’s operating strategy being guided by the rule of thumb – as official reserve assets of the Polish central bank grow over time, it will continue to buy more and more gold using a target percentage of gold to total reserve assets. “Taking all this into account, in 2020 the NBP Management Board adopted a new reserve management strategy. |
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