According to the report, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were bearing the brunt of the closures in 2023. Businesses, employing up to 250 people, accounted for vast majority of the total, with 55,435 closures. Meanwhile, medium and large firms with over 250 employees, also saw an increase in closures, the regulator noted, adding that their numbers reached 57, doubling from 2022. The negative trend became the most notable in the restaurant and hotel business, where the number of busts surged 44.6% year-on-year, while the sector of information and communication technologies saw an increase of 44.4%. The country’s agricultural sector was the only one recording a drop of 1.3% in the number of bankruptcy filings.
In December, the Financial Times reported that the number of corporate bankruptcies across the world exceeded levels reached during the 2008 global financial crisis. Analysts attribute the surge to higher key rates, as well as self-liquidation of so-called ‘zombie firms,’ which had pulled through the Covid era only thanks to government support.
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The 20-nation euro currency bloc is expected to see only moderate economic growth, +0.6% in 2024, according to the results of a survey carried out by the Financial Times among 48 economists.
The outlooks issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are more optimistic, as analysts from the institutions expect the bloc’s economy to grow 0.8% and 1.2% in 2024, respectively. The experts polled by the FT said that the Eurozone economy won't be able to exceed 0.6% growth in spite of the fact that wages are expected to grow faster than inflation. Two thirds of the respondents said that they see the economy in the euro area slip into a recession. commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. According to the economists, wage growth in the single currency area is set to total only 4% in 2024, while consumer prices are projected to rise by over 2.5% on average next year and slightly below 2.1% in 2025. The ECB had previously forecast wages and inflation next year to grow 4.6% and 2.7% respectively, which would mark the growth of real household incomes for the first time in three years. The regulator expects consumer prices to grow 2.1% in 2025. Meanwhile, unemployment is projected to rise from a record eurozone low of 6.5% in October to 6.9% at the end of next year, according to most economists polled. High interest rates, probable energy market turmoil and geopolitical instability are expected to lead to a deeper recession, the economists warned, saying that the potential election of Donald Trump as US president along with the possibility of Ukraine losing the military conflict with Russia could send the single currency bloc into a period of even weaker growth. More then 5,400 underage Asylum seekers arrived Alone in the Netherlands this Year, up 29%21/12/2023 The number of unaccompanied minors seeking asylum in the Netherlands has been increasing, with over 5,400 applications up to November this year, compared to about 4,200 in 2022 and 2,200 in 2021, NOS reported on Thursday.
The proportion of unaccompanied minors within the total asylum applications in the Netherlands has risen to 16 percent this year, up from 9 percent in 2015. The WODC institute is presenting research on the motivations of these young asylum seekers to the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, on Thursday. The Netherlands was considered a favorable destination due to relatively quick asylum and reunification processes, as noted by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND). Researchers anticipate that the current long waiting times for asylum in the Netherlands will become known among young people, potentially changing the country's previously positive image of faster procedures. Most young asylum seekers arrive in the Netherlands by chance, fleeing unsafe conditions in their home countries or in countries they initially escaped to. The increasing complexity of flight routes, including pushbacks, has led to a delay effect, resulting in an accumulation of asylum applications this year. Under the Dublin Regulation, minor asylum seekers cannot be returned to their first country of arrival in Europe. Young people often choose their destination country en route, influenced by various factors. There may be many reasons why they end up in the Netherlands, including information from acquaintances, advice from human smugglers, or friendships formed during their journey with others heading to the Netherlands. Strict asylum policies in countries like Denmark also affect their choice of the Netherlands. Half of the young asylum seekers are from Syria, drawn to the Netherlands for its reputation as a safe society with guaranteed human rights and future prospects for youth. Additionally, they often have extensive social networks within the country. "Syrians are more likely to be highly educated and have more access to knowledge about escape routes and networks that they share via social media," said researcher Isik Kulu-Glasgow. Since 2019, there's been an increase in unaccompanied minors arriving in the Netherlands and across Europe. Often, parents send their eldest child, who can withstand the tough journey, ahead when they cannot afford to flee with the entire family, while the father stays behind to care for the remaining family members. According to previous IND research, 80 percent of unaccompanied minors who are allowed to stay in the Netherlands apply for family reunification. But family reunification is not always the primary objective; sometimes, children are sent away for their safety. Youths restricted by religious or conservative norms are also more likely to decide to leave on their own. The Ministry of Justice and Security recently expressed serious concern about the ongoing shortage of shelter spaces for unaccompanied minors. In a letter to the Tweed Kamer, they noted that as of October 30, 290 minors were housed in Ter Apel, exceeding its maximum capacity of 55. The facility struggles to provide adequate guidance when over 120 youths are present. The influx is expected to remain high next year. A shooting at a university in the center of Prague has left several people dead and dozens wounded, according to local police. The exact number of fatalities was not immediately clear, but authorities said the shooter has been “eliminated” after the massacre. The entire area around Jan Palach Square has been cordoned off as first responders work to help the victims at Charles University’s Faculty of Arts. “Based on initial information, we can confirm that there are dead and injured people at the scene,” police said in a statement on X. “We urge citizens not to stay in the immediate vicinity and not to leave the house.” Footage from the scene showed students fleeing the building with their hands raised in the air. University employees were warned that the shooter might be moving around the building, one eyewitness told Radio Liberty. Police have not yet released a description of the shooter, and it’s unclear what the motive could be.
The European Union has reached agreement on new rules designed to share out the cost and work of hosting migrants more evenly and to limit the numbers of people coming in.
Representatives of the European Parliament and of EU governments reached an accord after all-night talks on EU laws collectively called the New Pact on Migration and Asylum that should take effect next year. The laws cover screening irregular migrants when they arrive in the European Union, procedures for handling asylum applications, rules on determining which EU country is responsible for handling applications and ways to handle crises. Migrant arrivals in the European Union are way down from the 2015 peak of more than 1 million, but have steadily crept up from a 2020 low to 255,000 in the year to November, with more than half crossing the Mediterranean from Africa to Italy or Malta. Previous efforts to share out the responsibility of hosting migrants have foundered because eastern EU members in particular were unwilling to take in people who had arrived in Greece, Italy and other countries. Under the new system, countries not at the border will have a choice between accepting refugees or paying into an EU fund. The screening system envisaged will seek to distinguish between those in need of international protection and others who are not. People whose asylum applications have a low chance of success, such as those from India, Tunisia or Turkey, can be prevented from entering the EU and detained at the border, as can people seen as representing a threat to security. Refugee rights groups have said it will create what amounts to prison camps at the EU's borders. Germany welcomed the deal, saying it would ensure the new asylum system is implemented in a "fair, orderly" manner."The agreement on a common European asylum system was urgently needed and long overdue," said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. Sales of champagne in France have dropped by more than 20% this year due to skyrocketing prices for the sparkling beverage, the BFM Business TV channel reported on Tuesday.
The average price for a liter of champagne is reportedly hovering around €30 ($32), causing the French to opt for alternatives such as Alsace cremant and prosecco, which are up to five times cheaper. “Champagne is going through tough times because it’s too expensive for many French people,” Dominique Schelcher, CEO of retail cooperative Systeme U, told the media. “Other sparkling wines, such as Cremant d’Alsace, are on the rise.” Earlier this year, France’s Champagne Committee predicted that production of the sparkling beverage in the country would decline by about 6% to 130 million bottles by 2023, compared to 138.4 million bottles in 2022. The organization also forecast that champagne sales and exports would see a dramatic drop this year, pressured by inflation and a return to more typical trends after record demand in the past two years due to the lifting of pandemic-related curbs. If the pattern observed over the first 11 months of the current year continues in the coming weeks, champagne sales could decline to 110 million bottles for the whole of 2023, marking the lowest level in years. Food and energy have been particularly affected by inflation in France, which peaked at 6.3% in February, having been on the rise since the end of 2020. Although inflation has begun to ease in recent months, standing at 3.4% in November, food prices in France continue to increase. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar described Europe as “paradise” and his country as “one of the best parts of paradise,” urging citizens not not to link immigration with crime during a speech in parliament on Tuesday.
The PM’s comment came as Ireland continues to reel from the anti-immigrant riots that swept Dublin on Thursday night, after a man of Algerian descent allegedly stabbed three young children and their caregiver before he was subdued by bystanders. Because “Europe is paradise and Ireland is one of the best parts of paradise, thousands will come here and we just need to manage that as best we can,” Varadkar said, insisting that migrants were no more likely to commit crimes than anyone else and it was “totally wrong” to think otherwise. “In a country of 5.3 million people, if there are hundreds of thousands of migrants, there are going to be a few of them who commit terrible crimes, just as there are people born and bred in Ireland who commit terrible crimes every day, including murder,” the PM said. Acknowledging that the suspect in the stabbing case is a “migrant, though a citizen and someone who has been here for over 20 years,” Varadkar stressed that the parents of the five-year-old child that the attacker had put in the hospital were also migrants, as was the Brazilian delivery worker who hit the attacker with his helmet in order to protect the children and three others who intervened to stop the attack. “It is totally wrong to try to make out that there is a connection between crime and migration based on what happened on Parnell Street,” the Irish leader said, referring to the location of the school where the stabbing occurred. The attacker’s motive remains unknown. Several officers were injured in Thursday’s riot, while at least two buses, a tram and multiple police vehicles were torched. Dozens of rioters have been arrested. Irish authorities reacted to the worst unrest in Dublin in decades by vowing to strengthen hate speech laws and beef up surveillance. Justice Minister Helen McEntee rated the police response as “excellent,” while police commissioner Drew Harris denounced the rioters as “a complete lunatic hooligan faction driven by far right ideology.” While he acknowledged there was a “real concern” about the nation’s porous borders, Varadkar told legislators on Tuesday that the number of migrants seeking asylum in Ireland had declined from last year’s record high thanks to his efforts. The country has struggled to accommodate unprecedented immigration, with 141,000 arriving between April 2022 and April 2023 alone, according to the Central Statistics Office. The start of the peak consumption season in the EU amid rising demand from Asia could drive up prices for natural gas on the continent despite ample supply of liquified natural gas (LNG) globally, Oilprice reported this week.
According to the outlet, the situation has been worsened by a range of factors, such as geopolitical tensions, including the recent Houthi ship seizure. Supply-chain challenges, like the restrictions in the Panama Canal and risks in the Suez Canal, have also been causing concerns for global LNG shipping and pricing, the report added. “Vulnerability to any occurrence that can influence prices was made crystal clear earlier this week when European benchmark prices jumped after the news broke of Houthis seizing a cargo ship in the Red Sea,” Oilprice wrote, noting that the ship was linked to an Israeli company and therefore was widely seen as a sign of a possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. According to the report, citing S&P Global, some experts in the gas trading industry believe LNG prices won’t climb much higher, even in light of rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Other experts reportedly suggest that shipping news has become quite important for all sorts of commodities lately due to restricted movement via the Panama Canal and riskier passage via the Suez Canal as a result of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Asian buyers of US LNG have also been seeking alternative routes in the wake of the limited movement in the key choke-point between North and South America, which is expected to add to freight rates, the report noted. “Speaking of supply, it may be plentiful, but as last year’s Freeport outage demonstrated, this abundance is one outage away from a disruption and a price spike,” Oilprice wrote. The blast at a massive US gas export plant last June shut the facility down for the rest of the year. Freeport, which had accounted for a tenth of European LNG imports before the blast, only reopened in February this year. The force majeure has led to a spike in gas prices on the continent. With temperatures dropping for winter, gas prices could climb higher in the EU, while global prices may be more resilient, Oilprice concluded. A warm winter last year and efforts by the EU to build up stocks helped to avoid a recurrence of the 2021 energy crisis, when gas prices in the region spiked over €300 ($320) per megawatt hour following the bloc’s decision to shift away from Russian supplies. European gas prices were volatile this week as traders weighed higher heating demand in colder weather with still nearly full EU inventories. The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were trading 1.3% lower on Wednesday at $44.66 per megawatt-hour as of 11:04am GMT. Italy has no chance of boosting its military spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, despite NATO requirements, and won’t likely be able to meet the target within the next five years, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has told lawmakers in Rome.
Italy’s defense spending this year will equate to 1.46% of the country’s GDP, according to a NATO estimate. The ratio will reportedly drop to 1.38% next year and to 1.26% in 2025, even as defense spending rises. Speaking to members of the defense and foreign affairs committees in both houses of Italy’s parliament on Tuesday, Crosetto said bringing military spending to 2% of GDP will be “impossible” in 2024 and “difficult for 2028 as well.” He went on to add, “We are indeed far from 2%, very far.” “NATO must not set unrealistic financial objectives,” Crosetto said. Italy won’t be able to increase its military spending as much as needed unless the defense budget is excluded from EU fiscal constraints, Crosetto has previously warned. “If we do not resolve the current framework of inconsistency between the responsibility to strengthen security and the public finance [restrictions] imposed by the EU, it will be very difficult to reach the 2% minimum threshold envisaged by NATO within a reasonable timeframe,” he said in June. Members of the Western military bloc agreed at a 2014 summit to target defense spending equivalent to 2% of each country’s GDP by 2024. The bloc agreed in July to make the 2% threshold a minimum requirement, rather than a goal. However, only 11 of the 31 current members are projected to reach the target this year. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told lawmakers earlier this year that respecting the country’s spending commitments were necessary to protect national sovereignty and credibility. “Freedom has a price, and if you are not able to defend yourself, someone else will do it for you, but will not do it for free,” she said. “They will impose their interests, even if they differ from yours, and I don’t think this was ever good business for anyone.” The right-wing Swiss People's Party is projected to be the biggest winner of the general election after voters in Switzerland cast their ballots on Sunday to choose a new parliament for the 2023-2027 legislative period.
According to final projections published at 20:00 local time (2200 GMT), the Swiss People's Party has won 28.9 percent of the vote, 3.3 percentage points up compared with its result in the elections in 2019. It was followed by the left-wing Social Democrats with 18 percent of votes, while the left-wing Green Party garnered 9.2 percent of the votes, losing four percentage points from last election. Swiss media reported that the turnout for the Sunday election was 46.9 percent, up from 45.1 percent four years ago. The final results of the elections are expected by Monday. Since the 1970s, most seats of the Swiss legislative body usually go to the country's four largest political parties: the Swiss People's Party, the center-right Radical-Liberals Party, the center-right Centre Party and the left-wing Social Democratic Party. The Swiss People's Party made strong gains in 1999 and 2003, but in 2019 the Green Party massively expanded its voter base, ousting the Centre Party as the fourth most-represented party in the House of Representatives. Founded in 1971, the Swiss People's Party advocates a restrictive policy on immigrants and refugees, the principle of neutrality, no further political integration into Europe, and a restrictive taxation and financial policy. The volume of natural gas in EU underground storage facilities has soared to an all-time high, reaching nearly 98%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data released on Monday.
Gas inventories across the EU and the UK amounted to 1,114 terawatt-hours (TWh), breaking the previous record set in October 2019, when it reached 1,102 TWh. Gas reservoirs in the EU are now 97.89% full, exceeding the bloc’s target of 90% by November 1 and providing some cushion ahead of the heating season. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to the region remained the lowest in almost two years in October, the European gas operator association revealed. Meanwhile, Russia’s energy major Gazprom continues to supply gas for transit to Western and Central Europe through Ukraine via the only remaining gas pumping station, Sudzha. The amount totals 42.5 million cubic meters per day as of October 17. Ukraine shut down transit through the Sokhranovka station, a key gas transit route which handled around a third of the Russian gas being supplied to the EU, in May 2022, citing “interference by the occupying forces.” Russia used to deliver about 155 bcm of natural gas to the EU annually before the start of the Ukraine conflict, primarily via pipelines. In January, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, claimed that the EU has reduced Russian gas imports by 80%. To offset gas supply shortfalls, the EU has resorted to taking in high-priced shipments of LNG from the US and Qatar, and increased pipeline imports from Norway and Azerbaijan. “We’re talking about buying American gas, but production volumes there are also limited, and it’s not so easy to spin everything up quickly,” Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out last week. He noted that while his country has already found an alternative to the European gas market, the EU still cannot make do without Russian gas. “Thus far, European countries cannot cope without our gas in full. They simply have nowhere to get it,” Putin said, adding that “physical” volumes of the fuel the bloc is currently receiving from other exporters are insufficient to cover demand. Setting a specific date for EU expansion is unwise, warned Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as he openly opposed Brussels’ plans to admit countries such as Ukraine to the bloc by the end of the decade.
“It’s not a question of when countries are ready; it’s a question of whether countries are ready,” Rutte was quoted as saying by the NOS news outlet on Thursday on the sidelines of the European Political Community (EPC) summit. Rutte’s comments come after European Council President Charles Michel stated that he wanted Kiev to become part of the EU by 2030 as the bloc tries to prevent Russia and China from expanding their influence in Europe. But the outgoing Dutch PM has insisted that the accession of countries into the union should be done according to the rule of law, which means that Kiev “must meet thousands of conditions to join,” and no concessions could be made on these requirements. Additionally, Rutte stressed that even if all the countries that want to join the EU, such as Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkan states, managed to meet all the requirements, the EU itself is not yet ready to accept new members. “The EU has 27 member states, and if more countries are added, decision-making and all kinds of other matters will become even more complicated,” Rutte said. Previously, doubts about Kiev’s EU membership were also raised by the former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said in an interview with Germany’s Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper on Thursday that Brussels “should not make any false promises to the people in Ukraine.” Juncker stressed that Ukraine is “a country that is corrupt at all levels of society” and cannot be allowed into the bloc unless it first conducts “massive” reforms. Meanwhile, even Ukrainian officials have pointed out that Kiev needs to deal decisively with corruption in the country as it has also hindered Ukraine from receiving financial aid from abroad to help in its ongoing conflict with Russia. After the US Congress failed to include any funds for Kiev in its latest government spending bill, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak stated that “the biggest (public) complaint about [Ukraine] is corruption.” The Wall Street Journal recently reported that with the holdup in US aid for Ukraine, concerns are growing in Kiev about the possibility of the country facing a financial shortfall, jeopardizing the payment of its civil servants. A Ukrainian official suggested that Ukraine might manage its finances through October and possibly November and December, but sustaining operations beyond that point could become increasingly challenging.
Italian industry and manufacturing, in particular, have been struggling in the past several months due to a lack of new orders as global demand weakened. The Italian industrial economy appears to be trapped in a deep recession with no clear way out,” said Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. “New orders, both domestic and international, are shrinking, and even expectations for future output have fallen well below their long-term average.” Although the PMI survey indicated some increase in factory employment, it mainly pointed to a shortage of skilled workers, while the previous report by S&P said Italian factories had started to lay off staff due to a deeper contraction in industrial production.
Economists forecast that the manufacturing recession, which started in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy in the middle of last year, will continue. Manufacturing accounts for around 16% of Italy’s output but its weakness continues to weigh on the Italian economy, dragging it into further contraction. The latest estimates showed that the country’s economy shrank by 0.4% – ahead of the 0.3% that had been predicted – in the second quarter of the year.
Meanwhile, public debt is surging and the budget deficit is widening despite Western aid, according to Azarov.“The best illustration of the catastrophic state of affairs is that the budget of the country at war lacks more than $6 billion to pay the Ukrainian military alone,” he said. Azarov claimed that the families of Polish mercenaries killed during the conflict had not received any compensation despite promises from Kiev. “As a result, the Ukrainian economy increasingly resembles a ‘zombie’ – it shows signs of life only with foreign financial assistance, which it requires more and more,” the former prime minister argued. According to Azarov, Ukraine’s “closest analogues” in terms of economic woes are Afghanistan and Haiti, which are faced with similar problems. He added that the “most daring” forecasts show that Ukraine will need more than 30 years to catch up with the current economic level of Romania or Poland.
On the sidelines of the G20 Summit at the weekend, the United States and India unveiled proposals for what has been termed the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) with the backing of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Jordan, as well as officials from the EU.
The project, billed as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), seeks to build a commercial route from India through to Europe via the Arabian Peninsula, Israel, and then the Mediterranean Sea. Unsurprisingly, the project’s significance was inflated by the press as “historic” and a “blindside” challenge to Beijing that would doom China’s own mega-infrastructure project. But such conclusions are misleading, for many reasons. First, not every participant in this new initiative is squarely opposed to China and sees it, as the US does, as a zero-sum game. The Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are not anti-Beijing at all and are part of the BRI themselves. These countries, seeking to diversify their economies from dependency on oil revenue, are seeking new options to consolidate their wealth and thus courting large-scale foreign investments, including from China itself. They want to make themselves the “crossroads” of the world, they do not see such a project through the lens of containment or even geopolitical rivalry, but as creating more benefits for themselves. If Saudi Arabia can get Chinese and Indian cargo going through their country, that’s a double win – it never had to be an “either-or” arrangement for Riyadh.Second, parts of this new route are co-opted from China itself. The Haifa Port in Israel was, until recently, mostly under China’s control (India’s Adani Group acquired 70% of the stake in July), while Piraeus Port in Athens was controlled by Chinese shipping company, Cosco. The railroad infrastructure linking Greece with Central Europe is also part of the BRI. Another Chinese-owned commercial port exists on that same route in the Indian Ocean – Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This means that China itself can use multiple parts of the proposed transport route, and the IMEC project does not really undercut Beijing to the extent it’s being portrayed – and all of the co-opted countries would be pretty happy for that. Third, this project could end up in the growing graveyard of pledged, and failed, BRI alternatives, which come at a rate of approximately one per year. It wasn’t that long ago that the US and its allies in the G7 were launching Build Back Better W (B3W), or the Global Partnership for Infrastructure Investment, or the Blue Dot Network. None of these projects have the coordinated hierarchical superstructure that the Chinese state does, which allows projects to be cooperated and rolled out at breakneck pace, nor do they have the readily accessible financial resources to take off. If China seeks to build a high-speed railway, for example, the Communist Party can coordinate a bank to fund it, a railway company to build it, and a supply chain to stock it, all in one organized motion. The US does not have the power to do that, unless of course it comes down to military and defense spending, such as the bottomless pit of aid to Ukraine, and therefore is unable to compete. All other spending in Washington is part of the never-ending political battle in the Congress, where every single non-military penny must be fought for, tooth and nail, in a serious process. It’s why its own national infrastructure is increasingly shoddy, and, to use the above example for comparison, American high-speed railways remain underdeveloped by generous definition and non-existent compared to China.Finally, the IMEC is tiny compared to what the BRI aims to achieve. While IMEC wants to connect the Middle East to the Indian subcontinent (which also benefits China), the BRI has been working on not just one, but multiple economic corridors all over the planet. This includes comprehensively connecting the Eurasian landmass through huge railways spanning Russia, Central Asia and Mongolia, making it possible for a train from Shanghai to arrive in London, but also creating a new route to the sea through Pakistan (CPEC), connecting South East Asia by land through new railroads going through Laos and into Thailand, as well as a route which spans West Asia through Turkey and another Indian subcontinent foray with the China-Myanmar Corridor. In conclusion, the US has been desperate to rival the Belt and Road Initiative, but has never been able to produce anything of the same scale or vision, all the while repeatedly ignoring the reality that transcontinental infrastructure routes are not “zero-sum games” because their results ultimately benefit everyone, which in China’s perspective has always been the focus of the BRI itself as a “win-win” initiative. Despite that, each new branded “alternative” comes with the same hype that “this time” China’s project has met its match. No, it really hasn’t, but thanks for creating a new route which Chinese cargo can use in the meantime. |
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