China's "zero coronavirus" policy is facing a serious dilemma. The authorities there have imposed extremely severe movement restrictions to try and stamp out all traces of the virus, and this has got some results. But the long lockdown in Shanghai, the country's largest hub of international commerce, is inevitably starting to put a drag on the economy.
China's harsh lockdown measures are premised on successes in tamping down the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province, where the virus was first reported. The measures got infections under control far more quickly than in Europe or the United States, and boosted Chinese President Xi Jinping's power at home. Then came the highly infectious omicron variant. Omicron spread, and the prevention methods focused on containment that were effective in Wuhan have had far less impact. In Shanghai, residents are barred from going outside, and even getting food is becoming more difficult. There have been cases reported of people with chronic health conditions dying because they could not access proper treatment. And some analysis suggests that these severe movement limitations have been expanded to cover dozens of cities. The resulting blow to the Chinese economy has been significant. The supply chain has been badly disrupted by production halts and clogged logistics channels. Economic growth for the January to March quarter was sluggish, falling far below the annualized target of "about 5.5%." Many observers both at home and abroad are sounding the alarm, but President Xi has insisted that "victory is a matter of sticking to" the lockdown measures. His stance is a marked contrast to the shift in other countries toward "living with the coronavirus." Each country is faced with deciding how to prevent the virus's spread. China, as the most populous nation on Earth, has not been able to build a healthcare system capable of covering all its many citizens. We understand that the prospect of an infection wave would be highly disconcerting to Chinese authorities. However, international cooperation is indispensable for any effort to confront a global pandemic. And China, as the world's second-largest economy in an era when countries are ever more dependent on one another, has a major role to play. One major worry is that continuing the "zero coronavirus" policy will become an end in itself for the Chinese government. We wonder if so much stock has been put into this policy as proof of the Chinese Communist Party's fitness to rule, that it has become difficult for the government to respond flexibly to changes in the situation. One senior Chinese government official stated emphatically that "it is a mistaken idea to try to live with the virus." However, the coronavirus crisis is likely to be with us for the long haul, and we are at a point where a flexible approach taking both the virus and the functioning of society is called into account. Obsessing over past success could very well damage the "stability" so prized by the Xi government.
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