When the Cold War ended, the nuclear threat diminished. But.....
Termination of the superpower standoff generated hope for a world in which cooperation would prevail over competition and conflict. In 1991, the Doomsday Clock, which provides an easily understood assessment of the risk of a nuclear war, was reset and the minute hand moved from 10 to 17 minutes before midnight. Only eight years earlier, in 1983, the world was gripped by fears of nuclear war and the clock registered 23:57. Tensions are again growing. So too are nuclear arsenals. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), after a marginal decrease in the number of warheads in 2021, nuclear arsenals are expected to grow over the coming decade. SIPRI estimates that there were 12,705 nuclear warheads worldwide at the start of 2022, with over 90% of them — 11,405 — in the United States and Russian stockpiles. Some 2,000 warheads, virtually of them U.S. or Russian, are in a state of high operational alert, meaning that they can be used at a moment’s notice. All nuclear-armed states — the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — are modernizing their arsenals, and several continue to grow the number of their weapons. China’s nuclear development program appears set to yield a qualitative shift in its capabilities while North Korea is reckoned to have assembled up to 20 warheads — and has sufficient fissile material for 45 to 55 warheads. Not only are the numbers expanding, but governments appear committed to making nuclear weapons more usable, a new capability that is increasingly reflected in nuclear policy and doctrine. Talk of fighting a war with nuclear weapons is more and more common. Russia has made repeated reference to its nuclear capabilities throughout the war in Ukraine, an especially ominous sign. Those weapons represent a ghastly diversion of resources. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons estimated that the nuclear powers spent $82.4 billion on those weapons in 2021, an increase from $76 billion in 2020. That massive spending failed to deter a war in Europe. These disturbing and dangerous developments make even more important the forthcoming Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference, or RevCon, that is scheduled to be held in August in New York City. The RevCon is held every five years to assess progress toward the goals of the NPT: continuing nonproliferation by states without nuclear weapons; the availability of peaceful nuclear technology to those same states; and the movement toward nuclear disarmament by states with those awesome weapons of mass destruction. This meeting was supposed to have been held in 2020 but was postponed because of the pandemic. The SIPRI report makes clear that the five states allowed by the NPT to possess nuclear-weapons — the U.S., Russia, China, France and the U.K. — are not honouring their part of the bargain in which the nuclear “have-nots” commit to not acquiring those weapons in exchange for progress toward nuclear disarmament among the nuclear weapon states. The failure to follow through is not new. Frustration and disappointment prevented the last RevCon, held in 2015, from reaching consensus and producing a final report. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to attend the RevCon, the first Japanese prime minister to do so. (His attendance depends on the outcome of the Upper House election scheduled for July.) He joined the 2015 RevCon as foreign minister. Kishida’s interest in a world free of nuclear weapons also reflects his family’s Hiroshima origins; that city’s tragic history as the first city in the world to experience a nuclear bombing has reinforced his commitment to nuclear disarmament. Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi will boost that effort with his attendance at the ministerial meeting of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative, a 12-member coalition committed to promoting those two prongs of the NPT. The group will convene prior to RevCon to help generate momentum for a successful conclusion to that meeting. There is a new instrument in the disarmament toolkit: the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force in January 2021. It’s an ambitious document that prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to prohibited such activities. Nuclear armed states that join the treaty have a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of their nuclear weapons program. Impressive as it sounds, its effectiveness is limited: No nuclear weapon state has signed up. Neither has Japan, despite its unique historical experience with and knowledge of the effects of these weapons. Kishida said that Japan will not even take part as an observer in the first meeting of parties to the treaty that will be held in Vienna later this month, noting that no nuclear powers have acceded to the convention. Kishida’s reticence reflects the dilemma faced by Japan and other U.S. allies. In the abstract, disarmament is an appealing goal. Facing a potential adversary with a modern military, its own nuclear forces, a long and contentious history with Japan as well as an ongoing territorial dispute, the maintenance of a nuclear capability makes a great deal of sense. As Kishida argued when he explained why his government would not send a representative to the Vienna meeting, “Japan should promote nuclear arms control and nonproliferation realistically based on its relationship of trust with the United States, our only ally.” His logic makes sense. But Japan must remain committed to the goal of disarmament: because it is enshrined in the NPT, because nuclear weapon states have committed to that objective and because rising tensions make the possession of those weapons even more fraught. Japan can help by building up its conventional military forces to reduce the need to rely on U.S. nuclear weapons. It will take time but every contribution to the cause of disarmament is to be valued and pursued.
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