A hundred years after the armistice that ended the first world war heads of state and government gathered in France this month to commemorate the centenary and attend the opening of the Paris Peace Forum. The object of the forum – to spur international cooperation on global challenges to durable peace – is more essential than ever. But the meeting took place against a deteriorating multilateral landscape in which arguably the preeminent threat to international peace and security – nuclear weapons use – may be at its highest since the deep chill of the cold war.
Much attention in the aftermath of Armistice Day has focused on the concept of a “true European army” advanced by the leaders of France and Germany, a proposal linked to the evolving nuclear risk landscape. Indeed, French president Emmanuel Macron’s call for European defense came directly in response to the US announcement that it would withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty – European security was identified as the “main victim” should the Americans follow through. Yet even with a European army in place, and even if the US and Russia were to resolve their issues and abide by their INF obligations, the specter of nuclear use on the continent remains. Worsening relations between nuclear-armed states in recent years have had real consequences for the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Europe, whether intentionally or inadvertently. With Russia building up its military forces in Kaliningrad in response to frayed relations with the west, and the Obama-era New Start treaty set to expire in 2021 with no follow-up on the cards, European leaders have invoked images of an arms race on their continent. The continued presence of US and Russian nonstrategic weapons on the continent already poses serious risk of “accidental use, miscalculation and inadvertent escalation”. Recent activity in the Norwegian Sea raises the possibility of confrontation involving Russia’s Northern Fleet – a scenario that could mirror events during the Cuban missile crisis. The crisis in nuclear diplomacy has also been felt across non-proliferation and nuclear security efforts. This is significant as terrorist groups are said to remain intent on acquiring the materials necessary to construct a crude nuclear device. Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 effectively halted activities in the global partnership against the spread of weapons and materials of mass destruction. Vladimir Putin withdrew from the bilateral plutonium management and disposition agreement with the US in 2016. Such stalled campaigns to secure vulnerable nuclear materials should be of concern for a region that has proven susceptible to terrorist threat.
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