Lora Smith LONDON, July 23 -- A prominent British think-tank said on Monday that economic prospects for the UK are deteriorating as a new prime minister is about to be installed in Westminster. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warned there is a one-in-four chance the country has already entered a technical recession, and a disorderly no-deal Brexit in October could lead to a "severe downturn" in the economy within the next six months - and with it, a fall in living standards. Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to officially step down on Wednesday. The name of the new prime minister - elected by 160,000 members of the Conservative Party - will be announced on Tuesday. It is widely expected to be former mayor of London and ex-foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who is running against his successor, Jeremy Hunt. Both Johnson and Hunt have promised to renegotiate May's deal with the European Union, particularly the controversial backstop protocol of the withdrawal agreement, aimed at avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland. Both have promised to take the UK out of the EU without a deal by the new October 31 deadline should EU officials insist the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation, as they have done so far. The recently elected president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, restated this position last week, while conceding the EU would remain open to considering a further Brexit delay "for a good reason". In its latest quarterly forecast, NIESR predicted even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided, the UK economy will see a one percent growth in 2019 and 2020, revised down from the 1.5 percent figure it predicted earlier this year as the March Brexit deadline loomed. An orderly no-deal scenario - involving temporary contingency measures aimed at minimising disruption - would lead to a stall in growth in 2020.
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