MOSCOW, November 26 -- A Russian coast guard vessel rammed a Ukrainian tugboat in the Sea of Azov yesterday, setting off a series of increasingly dangerous escalations.
Russia blocked the Kerch Strait — the narrow passageway connecting the Sea of Azov to the much larger Black Sea — and detained three Ukrainian vessels and 23 sailors. Ukraine’s government is now considering an imposition of martial law. Why it matters: This weekend's attack opened a new front in Russia’s four-year aggression against Ukraine, which includes the ongoing land war in Ukraine's east and the occupation of Crimea. Background: Moscow has been harassing commercial ships bound for Ukraine’s ports in the Sea of Azov for months, even though Russia and Ukraine have dual control of the sea according to a 2003 agreement. At least 150 merchant vessels have been detained since May, creating significant losses for Ukrainian ports and shipping companies. Moscow has at least four possible motivations to escalate the conflict now:
The conflict in the Sea of Azov is unlikely to lead to a massive military engagement or World War III. But the Kremlin seems confident that it will not pay a high price for low-level military aggression similar to its activities in Ukraine’s east. If the international response is weak, Moscow may see an opening for yet more assertive military strikes in the future.
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