The “Belt and Road Initiative” was announced by the Chinese government in 2013 as a global trade strategy based on the ancient Silk Road trading route. It aims to develop a new Silk Road economic belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road by promoting economic cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. The initiative combines new and older projects and includes improved soft and hard infrastructure, and even cultural ties. The plan was announced in 2013 and the first project start in 2019 and then whole plan should be finalized in 2049. MEASURING SENTIMENT China is providing massive financing to participating countries, which currently officially number 66, for the development of infrastructure. Many of the recipients are developing countries which see China’s plan as an opportunity to boost their local economies. There is no firm evidence to date of how successful these projects have been in fulfilling the expectations of participating belt and road countries, but there are concerns that some projects lack regulation and coordination with existing markets. Critics of the belt and road scheme believe it represents a risk for participating countries that they will be left with unprofitable, unnecessary infrastructure. One of the biggest global concerns is that developing countries will be left with a debt burden to China which they will be unable to meet. The Brussels-based think tank Bruegel set out to gauge perception of the belt and road scheme among participating and non-participating countries. Using the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone, Bruegel conducted an analysis of broadcast, online and printed news from 132 countries between May 1, 2017 and April 25, 2018. Generally, the study found the belt and road scheme to be well perceived, with no significant gap between those countries participating and those which do not. Bruegel also used its dataset of media articles to identify the topics most frequently associated with the belt and road scheme, as well as how discussion of them affects perceptions of the scheme in different countries. “Trade” and “investment” were the two key topics identified and it appears from Bruegel’s analysis that frequent use of “trade” in media coverage in relation to the belt and road scheme leads to more negative perceptions. Reaction to “investment” as a belt and road topic was less clear, as Bruegel found it statistically irrelevant in countries’ perceptions of the belt and road plan. METHODOLOGY The tone of media coverage about the belt and road scheme in specific articles published in a country was calculated and the result was then aggregated with the average sentiment at country level, to build a scale, from the highest positive sentiment, 4.98 points (Botswana) to the lowest -2.8 (the Maldives). Also included in this visual analysis is an index of Operational Risk, developed by The Economist, which uses 10 criteria to quantify the risk to business profitability, based on present conditions and expectations for the median term. Among the criteria are: security, political stability, government effectiveness, foreign trade, the legal and regulatory environment, measured by a score from 0 to 100. Combined, the measurements of sentiment and operational risk in each country help to provide an understanding of the current scenario for the belt and road programme. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY Under the belt and road programme China provides loans to participating countries to develop their infrastructure. In a developing economy, infrastructure is the main engine and guarantee of growth but, when a country incurs too much debt without sufficient economic growth, the impact can be negative on people and the economy, as domestic spending on welfare and social services may be sacrificed to service the debt. According to a report from the Centre for Global Development, these are the 20 belt and road countries most vulnerable to debt distress: GEO-ECONOMIC VIEWS FROM OTHER NATIONS The great powers each have very different geo-commercial strategies, but all are characterised by an ambition to develop economic expansion plans which include neighbouring countries and, in many cases, other parts of the world. Initiatives include large communication infrastructure projects, diplomacy and closer economic ties and cooperation. Let's take a look at these initiatives that focus on Asia as an important part of their geo-economic vision. RUSSIA
Russia leads the Eurasian Economic Union, integrated together with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia, and is considering strengthening this group through economic and diplomatic ties with the belt and road plan. Its geo-economic goals include expanding its natural gas pipelines to China.
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Less than a week ago in ‘Houston, we have a Problem”: 85% of Silver in London already held by ETFs. We explain how with the emergence of the #SilverSqueeze, the silver-backed ETFs which claim to hold their silver in London, now account for 85% of all the silver claimed to be stored in the London LBMA vaults (over 28,000 tonnes of the LBMA total of 33,609 tonnes). This, for anyone who can out 2 and 2 together, does not leave very much available silver in London for silver ETFs or for anyone else, especially the largest silver ETF in the market the giant iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which let’s not forget has the infamous JP Morgan as custodian.
That SLV has seen massive dollar inflows in late January and early February with corresponding jumps in claimed silver holdings is now widely known, but is worth repeating here, for what’s about to come next. 3,416.11 Tonnes of Silver? The intense market interest in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) started on 28 January when a huge volume of 152 million shares traded on NYSE Arca. Again on Friday 29 January, SLV traded a massive volume of 113 million shares. This led to an increase in SLV ‘Shares Outstanding’ on Friday 29 January of 37 million shares, and a same day claim by JP Morgan, the SLV custodian, that it had increased the silver held in the SLV by 37.67 million ozs (1,171 tonnes), all claimed to be sourced in the LBMA vaults in London. On Monday 01 February, an even larger 280 million SLV shares traded on NYSE, and by end of day SLV shares outstanding jumped by 20 million. On that day SLV claimed to add another 15.376 million ounces of silver (478.25 tonnes) within the LBMA vaults in London, about three-quarters of the value of the new SLV shares created on that day. On Tuesday 2 February, with SLV trading still elevated on NYSE, the iShares Silver Trust created a massive 61,350,000 new SLV shares, bringing the SLV shares outstanding to 729.1 million. On the same day, JP Morgan and Blackrock claimed to have added a huge 56.783 million ozs of silver (1,766 tonnes) to the SLV (again all in London), an incredible amount by any measure, but still short of reflecting the total of 118.45 million total of new shares that had been created between Friday and Tuesday (which led them to adjust down shares outstanding by 8.6 million on Wednesday 3 February). Over this time, you can see a nearly one for one relationship between the change in number of SLV shares outstanding and the amount of silver ounces claimed to be added to SLV. Between Friday 29 January and Wednesday 3 February inclusive, SLV shares outstanding increased by a net 109.85 million. Over the 3-day period from Friday 29 January to Tuesday 2 February, SLV claimed to have added an incredible 109.83 million ozs of silver (3,416.11 tonnes), with holdings of silver bars rising from 567.52 million ozs of silver to 677.35 million ounces (from 17,651.77 tonnes to 21,067.88 tonnes).According to the SLV daily bar lists, this extra 3,416.11 tonnes of silver added to SLV between 29 January and 2 February was in the form of 113,501 Good Delivery silver bars (the bars weighing approx. 1000 oz each). Again, according to the SLV bar list, these bars were added in five London vaults which SLV uses, namely Brinks vault in Premier Park London (45.5%), Loomis London vault (27.7%), Brinks Unit 7 vault Radius Park London (15.5%), Malca Amit London vault (6.0%) and JP Morgan’s own London vault (a measly 5.3%). In fact, according to the bar lists, SLV only started tapping into silver in the Brinks Premier park vault on Monday 1 February, and only started tapping to silver held in the Loomis London vault on Tuesday 2 February. Which to some people may look like a case of desperation or maybe even panic. (Bijna) elke dag voltrekt zich een beangstigend fenomeen op YouTube. Mensen uit alle geledingen van de maatschappij verzamelen zich. Er staat iets te gebeuren. Iets, op een specifieke tijd. Een tijd die ruim van te voren is aangekondigd. Want je wil het toch niet missen! Het verzamelen gebeurt op een daartoe speciaal gemaakt kanaal op YouTube. De mensen zijn al ruim voor de aangekondigde tijd aanwezig. Zij maken al gebruik van de chat-functie en roeptoeteren er lustig op los. Een mengeling van fake en echte namen komt voorbij: Gitareur en Wiebe de Vries en The Dutchman. Masterkey14 doet ook een duit in het zakje: “Goedemorgen, mede wappies het wachten is op.. “ Ja, op wie wordt er eigenlijk gewacht? De afgesproken tijd nadert. De mensen worden onrustig en sommige zelfs bezorgd. “Ze zal toch niet weer zo chagrijnig zijn als gisteren?” “Nee, joh” en als ze zo is dan wordt het nog meer op prijs gesteld. Het wachten valt zwaar, maar het is de moeite waard.
En ineens is daar een stem. Zo uit het niets. Want als de tijd daar is, dan is zij er ook. Even de keel schrapen en daar komen de eerste woorden: “Goedemorgen allemaal. Het is gelukt.” Wat er precies gelukt is weet ik niet, maar de discipelen van Sietske zijn door het dolle heen. De camara werkt weer en het geluid ook. Het is niet waar! Sietske heet ze, Sietske Bergsma. Een Nederlands publicist. Zij is bekend van opiniërende columns in ThePostOnline. Ook produceert zij videocolumns en -interviews. Aldus Wikipedia. Nou nou, als je daar op voorkomt dan heb je het toch zeker gemaakt. Maar er is ook kritiek op haar op het zelfde platform: “Politicoloog en publicist Joshua Livestro verwijt Bergsma dat zij met haar werk over gaslighting lezers aanzet om te geloven in complottheorieën. De Nederlandse historicus Ewout Klei verwijt Bergsma dat zij islamofobie verspreidt en dat zij een cultuurmarxististisch complot ziet achter een folder over transseksualiteit voor 4-jarigen.” Aldus Wikipedia. Nou, misschien moeten we haar discipelen in die hoek zoeken. Sinds een aantal afleveringen maakt Sietske gebruik van een white-board achtige flip-over, waar de onderwerpen van de dag op staan. Dan weten de mensen tenminste wat ze te wachten staat. Je bent gewaarschuwd, zal ik maar zeggen. Dan gaat de show van start. De discipelen worden bij naam verwelkomt. Waar gebeurt dat nog? Ze heeft geen idee wie het zijn, maar het maakt haar tenminste blij. 264 aanwezig, te veel om allemaal bij naam te noemen. “Best veel”, vindt ze. “Raar tijdstip, kwart voor 10, maar…” Dan komt de uitleg, het had ook half 10 kunnen zijn. Dan worden de onderwerpen genoemd. Je weet wel, die op het white-board achtige flip-over ding. Zo kabbelt de show een beetje door. In het begin zit er nog wel lijn in, maar gaande weg gaat de drive in een lagere versnelling en wordt de afleiding te groot. De discipelen roeren zich, dus moet je daar op reageren. Een paar kreten in de chat worden herhaalt of beaamt. Daarmee is voor mij de lol er al weer af. Vol goede moed probeer ik het elke dag weer, maar een Bakkie met Bergsma wordt al heel snel bitter. A storm is coming (warning signs for the markets). Increasing danger and warning indications are happening for markets like the S&P 500 (and possibly bitcoin) are happening right now. Over the past few weeks and months we have seen rampant and excessive speculation, overoptimism and over-confidence in the stock markets. We have seen evidence of this already by the speculative behaviour of traders on stocks like Gamestop (GME) and cryptocurrencies. We are also seeing "dumb money" sentiment reaching greed and over-optimism readings with lots of call option buying activity. These are likely contrary warning signs for the stock markets (and possibly bitcoin too depending on the correlation). So what could this mean for the markets and the economy? Don't use fundamentals to predict the stock market.
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