- The first and the most optimistic possible scenario was the migration of magma could stop, attended by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
- The second possibility was that the dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, the eruption would be most likely near the northern tip of the dike, producing an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
- The third and also the worst possible result would be the dike reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jokulsa river in Fjollum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
Three possible scenarios were considered most likely in the Bardarbunga volcano situation after a discussion among officials and experts from the IMO and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland at a meeting of the Advisory Board, said the IMO.
Other possibilities were not excluded by the attendees, such as an eruption inside the Bardarbunga caldera could also happen.
The IMO said, seismicity continues to migrate northward and was now concentrated on the 10 km long tip of the dike extending 5 km beyond the edge of the Dyngjujokull glacier.
The dike beneath Dyngjujokull was now believed to be 35 km long. Modeling of GPS data indicates that it contains about 300 million cubic meters of magma.