Germany’s economic output will shrink this year, amid weak demand from abroad, soaring interest rates, and a protracted energy crisis, the latest forecast from the German Economic Institute (IW) revealed.
The economy is in a state of a “shock,” according to the IW, with businesses particularly affected by geopolitical uncertainties arising from the conflict in Ukraine. German companies and industries will “feel the global problems all the harder” this year due to scarcity and surging prices of raw materials and energy, the economists warned. Sluggish global trade and weak demand will result in lower-than-expected gross domestic product for the EU’s largest economy. It’s predicted to slump by almost 0.5% compared to last year, while unemployment will reach 5.5%, the report said. Inflation has remained high since the start of the year and is likely to stay at around 6.5%, weighing on consumer spending. “ The government urgently needs to take action to end this economic downturn,” the head of the macroeconomic and the Business Cycle Research Unit at the IW, Professor Michael Gromling, said. “Lower tax burdens and attractive and un-bureaucratic support for innovation and investment would help companies cope better with the current shocks,” he added. Economic sentiment in Germany has suffered from the effects of fiscal tightening, such as increased production costs and high interest rates. Investments have become less attractive for companies, with the construction sector among the worst-hit, data showed. Investments in home building are expected to fall by 3% this year.
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A group of EU nations bordering Belarus has demanded that Minsk expels the Russian Wagner private military company and repatriate illegal migrants allegedly massing in the country at their borders. Speaking on Monday during a joint press conference with his Latvian, Estonian, and Lithuanian counterparts, Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski warned that the countries could shut their borders with Belarus.
“If there is a critical incident, regardless of whether it is at the Polish or Lithuanian border, we will retaliate immediately. All border crossings that have been opened so far will be closed,” Kaminski stated. He branded the Wagner Group an “extremely dangerous” yet “demoralized” force, which he claimed was “capable of anything.” Poland has repeatedly accused Belarus of facilitating illegal migration, alleging that it has deliberately been steering the flow of people from the Middle East and Africa to the EU. “This situation is escalating. For several months, we have been dealing with attempts by migrants to illegally cross [the border],” Kaminski said. According to the Polish border guard, some 19,000 migrants have tried to enter Poland from Belarus thus far this year, compared to 16,000 during all of 2022. The ultimatum to Minsk follows the death of Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash in Russia last week. Several other senior members of the private military company were also killed in the incident. Thus far, Minsk has not responded to the demands from Poland and the Baltic states. The Wagner Group was re-deployed to Belarus after launching a short-lived insurrection in Russia in late June. The presence of the group in Belarus has fueled the long-standing tensions between Minsk and Warsaw. Poland has claimed that the private military company is active along the border and is waging “hybrid warfare” against it. Minsk has dismissed the allegations, while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Warsaw had “gone mad” with speculation surrounding Wagner.
According to EU code, tech platforms like Twitter are connected with “fact-checkers, civil society, and third-party organizations with specific expertise on disinformation.” In other words, avid gatekeepers of the establishment narrative. And on August 25th, adherence will no longer be voluntary.
The EU should consider getting out of the control freak business if it truly wants to help the European free press. Maybe then, journalists here in Europe trying our best to fully inform our audiences against information barriers created by Brussels won’t have to redirect our internet connections to places like Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, or Brazil in order to access information and sources that the EU doesn’t like. The introduction of a Digital Euro, a digital form of the European currency, offers numerous advantages in today's rapidly evolving digital world. Here are some key benefits of a Digital Euro:
While the advantages of a Digital Euro are compelling, it is crucial to address concerns such as data privacy, cybersecurity, and the digital divide to ensure that the benefits are accessible to all and that the system is secure and reliable. Going green and adopting environmentally friendly practices are important steps towards sustainability and mitigating climate change. However, it is true that some aspects of going green can have potential toxic costs. Here are a few examples:
It is crucial to acknowledge these toxic costs and strive for sustainable solutions that minimize or eliminate such risks. Constant research and development are essential to improve the environmental performance of green technologies and ensure that they are produced and disposed of responsibly. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on winning a third term in office on Sunday. Putin thanked Erdogan for his “personal contribution” to strengthening relations between Russia and Türkiye.
“Your victory in the elections was a natural result of your selfless work as head of the Republic of Türkiye, and is clear evidence of the Turkish people's support for your efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy,” Putin wrote in a message to Erdogan. “We highly appreciate your personal contribution to the strengthening of friendly Russian-Turkish relations and mutually beneficial cooperation,” Putin continued, noting the construction of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant and the creation of a new gas hub as two significant joint projects. “From the bottom of my heart I wish you new successes…as well as good health and well-being” Putin concluded. Erdogan declared victory on Sunday night after beating challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff election for the presidency. With more than 99% of ballots counted, Erdogan led Kilicdaroglu by 55.12% of the vote to 47.88%, according to the latest tally from Türkiye’s Anadolu Agency. The Turkish president’s foreign policy – described by Putin as “independent” and Erdogan himself as “balanced” – has seen Türkiye strengthen ties with Russia and China while pushing its NATO allies for concessions, as Erdogan did when he demanded Sweden and Finland lift arms embargoes on his country and deport terror suspects before he would sign off on their accession to the alliance. Türkiye is the sole NATO member that has not imposed sanctions on Russia over its military operation in Ukraine, and Erdogan has taken a neutral stance on the conflict. Under his leadership, Türkiye hosted peace talks between Moscow and Kiev last year, and brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The relationship has not been without its difficulties. Despite Erdogan’s declaration that Türkiye wants a peace deal in Ukraine “as soon as possible,” Ankara has sold Bayraktar TB2 strike and reconnaissance drones and Kipri mine-resistant armored vehicles to Kiev, prompting a rebuke from Moscow this week. Eurozone inflation surged to 7% in April in the first increase in the last five months, data released by the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat on Tuesday showed. Consumer prices rose from 6.9% in March, driven by food prices that soared 13.6% year-on-year last month. Food, alcohol and tobacco are expected to have the highest annual rate in April, followed by non-energy industrial goods, which picked up 6.2%.
Services climbed by 5.2% in April, compared with 5.1% the previous month. Energy prices were up again by 2.5% after a slight decline by 0.9% in March, according to the report. Core inflation – excluding food and energy prices – declined from 5.7% in March to 5.6% in April. The figures are closely watched by European Central Bank policymakers, who will decide whether to continue raising interest rates to curb inflation when they meet on Thursday. Latvia continues to struggle with the highest inflation at 15%, followed by Slovakia, Lithuania and Ireland — all dealing with a double-digit surge in consumer prices among the 20-member eurozone. Inflation in Germany, the EU's biggest economy, declined to 7.6% in April from 7.8% in March. In France, however, consumer prices rose 6.9% last month up from 6.7% in March, Eurostat said. While the ECB has not committed to a new rate hike, the latest figures make it more likely, economists warn. The key deposit rate in the eurozone stands at 3%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said that taming inflation while avoiding a recession was the biggest challenge the EU will face in the months to come. France saw its largest protest so far against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform on Thursday, with more than a million people taking to the streets across the country. The gatherings started peacefully, but were marred by violence in Paris and several other cities, as police used batons, tear gas and water cannons to disperse rioters, who hurled rocks and Molotov cocktails at officers, set up barricades, and vandalised public property. The French Interior Ministry said 1.089 million people took part in the ninth nationwide rally against the government’s plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. According to official data, attendance doubled compared to March 15, the previous day of protests. The CGT confederation of trade unions claimed that the number of demonstrators on Thursday was far higher, totalling 3.5 million.
Violence and arrests Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said on Friday morning that 457 people were arrested across the country, most of them in Paris, where 903 fires were lit on the streets. The scuffles saw 441 police officers injured, he said. There were reportedly dozens of wounded among the demonstrators, including a woman, who lost a thumb in the town of Rouen in Normandy. In his comments late on Thursday, Darmanin said the damage caused by the riots was more significant than on previous days. He singled out incidents in Bordeaux, where the entrance to the city hall was set on fire, and Lorient, where a police station was targeted. The minister blamed the chaos on some 1,500 “thugs, often from the far left, who want to bring down the state and kill police officers.” Those people are already known to law enforcement, he added. However, the deputy secretary general of the CFDT union, Marylise Leon, insisted that the “responsibility for this explosive situation lies not with the unions, but with the government.” The unrest is a result of “the falsehoods expressed by the president and his incomprehensible stubbornness,” she said. When is the next protest? The unions have called for the next – tenth – day of nationwide strikes and rallies against the pension reform to be held on Tuesday, March 28. The development could potentially distrupt a planned visit by Britain’s King Charles III, who is scheduled to travel to Bordeaux by train on that day. Speaking about future protests, which have been building momentum since January, Leon claimed that “the powerful social rejection of this project is legitimate and its expression must continue.” Pension reform Thursday’s huge turnout follows a decision by Macron’s government earlier this week to use executive privilege to pass the pension reform bill without a parliamentary vote. Despite fervent opposition and calls to resign, the president is insisting on raising the retirement age to 64 by the end of the year. He argues that failure to do so will cause the entire French pension system to collapse. Macron, whose ratings have slumped to below 30% since the onset of the crisis, said on Wednesday that he would always choose the future of the nation over short-term opinion polls, pledging: “If it is necessary to accept unpopularity today, I will accept it.” However, trade unions insist that the reform is “unfair” and mainly harms low-skilled workers with physically draining jobs and women with interrupted careers. One of attendees at Thursday’s rally claimed Macron’s plan was “a death sentence” for him. Farmers movement BBB has become the largest party in all twelve Dutch provinces, according to the provincial results. Utrecht was the last province to get its results in. GroenLinks and BBB were neck-on-neck in the province, but BBB came out on top with 13.2 percent of the votes. GroenLinks is the second largest party there with 12.8 percent, followed by VVD with 11.9 percent, NOS and ANP report.
The turnout stood at 57.5 percent, higher than 2019’s already high 56 percent. According to the broadcaster, the turnout for this provincial election will likely be the highest since the late 1980s. Prime Minister Mark Rutte called the BBB’s massive victory “a very clear cry to politicians” and a “very clear relevant signal” from the voter. Rutte told ANP he does not yet know how to interpret this cry. He needs more time to think about it. Sixteen hours after the first results is too early for a “full-fledged analysis,” he said. To NOS, Rutte said he believes there is still support for his Cabinet. “We have a majority in parliament; there have been democratic elections.” The coalition already didn’t have a majority in the Senate, but losing more seats will still be a blow. Rutte wants to see how this plays out “In the coming days and weeks.” Results per province In Drenthe, the BBB got 33.5 percent of the votes, amounting to 17 seats in the Provincial Council - more than the total number of seats of the parties in places 2 to 7, according to the broadcaster. In Overijssel, the party got 31 percent of the votes. In the municipalities of Dinkelland and Tubbergen, BBB even won outright, getting more than half of the votes. In these two municipalities, the CDA - traditionally the farmers’ party - lost a lot of voters. The turnout in Tubbergen was also 16 percent higher than in 2019. In Limburg, BBB got 18.5 percent of the votes, here too, mostly at the expense of the CDA. Geert Wilders’ PVV, traditionally strong in Limburg, lost some voters but became the second-largest party with 12.7 percent of the votes. In Groningen, BBB got 23.6 percent of the votes. PvdA and GroenLinks are the second and third biggest parties in the province, each getting about 10 percent of the votes. CDA’s votes about halved, from 8.1 percent in 2019 to 4.1 percent this year. The other coalition parties also scored less well than in 2019. Friesland’s provisional results had the BBB with 27.9 percent of the votes. The PvdA is the second-largest party with 10.6 percent, followed by CDA with 8.7 percent. BBB got 23.8 percent of Gelderland voters' votes. The VVD is in a distant second place with 10 percent. PvdA is the third party with 8.8 percent of the votes. In Zuid-Holland, the farmers' party got 13.7 percent of the votes, beating the VVD's 12.9 percent. In 2019, the ruling party still got 15.7 percent of the votes. GroenLinks is the third largest party in Zuid-Holland with 9.7 percent of the votes, 0.6 percent more than in 2019. BBB got 14.2 percent of the votes in Noord-Holland, over a percentage point more than second-place VVD. PvdA and GroenLinks are the third and fourth largest parties in the province. Together, the two left-wing parties are larger than the BBB. In Noord-Brabant, the farmer's movement got 18.2 percent of the votes. VVD is the second largest party, with 14.1 percent of the votes. BBB will get 11 of the 55 seats in the Provincial Council, the VVD 9. GroenLinks is the third largest party, with 7.7 percent of the votes and five seats. In Flevoland, BBB got 20.8 percent of the votes. VVD came in second largest with 9.9 percent of the votes, followed by the PVV with 7.7 percent, PvdA with 7.6 percent, and GroenLinks with 6.9 percent. And in Zeeland, the BBB is the largest party with 19.7 percent of the votes, pushing the CDA from its throne. Left-wing combination GroenLinks/PvdA is the second largest party with 13.4 percent, followed by the SGP with 12.5 and then CDA with 11.4 percent. Eerste Kamer This was the BBB’s first time participating in the provincial elections, and its massive victory translates into 16, maybe 17 seats in the Eerste Kamer, the Dutch Senate, according to a prognosis by ANP on Thursday afternoon. The left-wing bloc PvdA/GroenLinks is projected to get 15 seats. The two parties had separate electoral lists but will form one faction in the Senate. The biggest loser in this election was FvD, who won 12 seats in the 2019 elections and only 2, maybe 3, in this one. Though due to infighting and split-offs, the FvD currently only has one actual seat in the Senate, so even with the much fewer votes, it may be considered a win. All four coalition pirates - VVD, D66, CDA, and ChristenUnie - lost seats. For many voters, dissatisfaction with the current Cabinet motivated their choice to vote for someone else, according to an online poll by Ipsos. China has released its Global Security Initiative Concept Paper, which focuses on preventing conflicts and promoting global security, while blasting the use of sanctions in foreign policy. The initiative, which was unveiled by the Foreign Ministry on Tuesday, hinges on several core concepts and principles meant to help both China and the international community navigate in what the document describes as an “era rife with challenges.”
It prioritizes UN-centred security governance, stating that “the Cold War mentality, unilateralism, bloc confrontation and hegemonism contradict the spirit of the UN Charter and must be resisted and rejected.” Countries should also uphold the consensus that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” the initiative reads, adding that the nuclear powers should strengthen dialogue and cooperation to mitigate the risk of a nuclear stand-off. The document went on to stress the need to take the “legitimate security concerns of all countries seriously,” while respecting their sovereignty and territorial integrity. The program paper also made an appeal to resolve international disputes exclusively through diplomacy. “War and sanctions are no fundamental solution to disputes; only dialogue and consultation are effective in resolving differences,” it said, adding: “abusing unilateral sanctions… does not solve a problem, but only creates more difficulties and complications.” Addressing the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, the paper highlighted the need to “support political settlement of hotspot issues such as the Ukraine crisis through dialogue and negotiation.” Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said the initiative strives to establish a human community with a shared future, and that it “is open and inclusive” for any nation to join. The idea of the initiative was first put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping in April 2022 as a means to “uphold the principle of indivisible security” in the world. This comes one day after China released a report titled ‘US Hegemony and its Perils’, blasting Washington for escalating the great power competition across the globe, staging ‘color revolutions’, and stoking regional tensions under the guise of promoting democracy. India and China have stepped up purchases of Russian Arctic oil grades following Western sanctions on Russian crude, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing traders and vessel-tracking data from Refinitiv. The EU, G7 nations and Australia introduced a price cap on Russian oil late last year, while the EU also placed an embargo on seaborne Russian crude. According to the report, Indian purchases of Russia’s Arco and Arco/Novy Port grade crude reached a record of 6.67 million barrels in November. Another 4.1 million barrels of those crude grades were supplied to the country in December, along with a 900,000-barrel shipment of Varandey crude, India’s first purchase of the grade. Prior to Western sanctions on Russian energy, Arctic grades were usually supplied to European countries. A source cited at an Indian refiner stated gross product margins from the processing of Russian Arctic crude grades are over $10 a barrel higher against similar quality US oil. Along with steep discounts sellers offer for Russian shipments, this makes Russian oil increasingly attractive to buyers, analysts say. Prior to the crisis in Ukraine, India, the second-biggest oil consumer in Asia, was a small marginal buyer of Russian crude. However, the situation changed after Western buyers started shunning the fuel due to sanctions, and in November last year, Russia became India’s largest oil supplier.
Data also showed that at least three vessels loaded with some 2.58 million barrels of Arctic crude are currently on their way to China from the Russian port of Murmansk. Like New Delhi, Beijing hasn’t joined Western sanctions against Russian oil, instead boosting Russian crude purchases by 10.2% in January-November last year, to 79.78 million tons. In November, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s largest crude provider, according to a Chinese customs report issued late last month. Meanwhile, European purchases of Russian oil have been dwindling. Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries fell to 167,000 barrels a day in the 28 days to December 30, from more than 1.5 million barrels a day a year earlier, Bloomberg reported this week, citing vessel tracking data.
At their peak in August, European gas prices topped €345 ($367) MWh, sending household energy bills soaring and fueling a cost-of-living crisis across much of the continent. The current decline in prices is attributed to several factors, including unseasonably warm winter weather in much of north-western Europe, which has helped reduce demand for heating. EU countries agreed last week to set an emergency cap on wholesale gas prices at €180 ($191) per megawatt-hour, which would be triggered if gas futures trade at a higher level for three consecutive days. The measure will take effect on February 15 and is aimed at protecting consumers from gas price hikes. In November, Goldman Sachs predicted a sharp drop in European gas prices in the coming months due to a stabilizing situation with storage levels. However, despite the current decline, gas prices remain several times higher than the long-term average. Prior to spiking to historic highs this year on concerns over Russian energy supplies, TTF gas spot prices were trading in a €10-25 MWh range in the 2017-2019 period. In 2020, the market was hit by Covid-induced demand shock, followed by the exponential price rise this summer.
In a large-scale raid, German police targeted dozens of individuals from the far-right Reichsbürger scene who were suspected of planning a coup. What kind of movement is this — and what threat does it pose to democracy?
A group of "Reichsbürger" allegedly spent months preparing for a "Day X," on which they wanted to overthrow the government. In a large-scale raid on Wednesday morning, several suspects were arrested, including ex-soldiers and a former member of the Bundestag. Since November 2021, they had been holding secret meetings and engaged in shooting exercises in preparation for a coup, according to the attorney general. In their plans, the suspects did not shy away from the use of military force or homicide. "The sheer number of arrests and searches has shocked me," sociologist Timo Reinfrank, executive director of the Amadeu Antonio Foundation. The foundation is one of Germany's leading NGOs working against right-wing extremism, racism, and antisemitism. "A real coup d'état can hardly succeed in Germany, as the state order and the constitution are too solid for that, but these people believe it is possible. That shows how caught up they are in their delusion." But attacks like the one on the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on January 6, 2021, would also be possible in Germany, Reinfrank fears. What does the movement believe? Reichsbürger reject the German legal system and the country's parliamentarism, and most of them propagate the re-establishment of the German empire founded in 1871. They also believe that the victorious Western Allies of World War II, who defeated Nazi Germany, still secretly rule the country. In recent years, the growing number of Reichsbürger has alarmed German security authorities. In its June 2022 report, the domestic intelligence service estimated that around 21,000 people belong to this scene — and their number is rising. The high potential for violence among the self-proclaimed Reichsbürger was described as particularly worrying: "Around 500 of these people still have at least one weapons permit," the intelligence report read. The Reichsbürger are not a homogeneous group, according to a 2018 study by the Amadeu Antonio Foundation. Instead, the term refers to a "large, very diverse milieu of ideologists" who vary in their propensity for violence and militancy, but all are united by the belief that the Federal Republic of Germany is not a sovereign state. They reject the constitution and all state institutions. Around 1,150 of the Reichsbürger — or just over 5% — were classified as right-wing extremists in 2021. But many others also use elements of right-wing extremist ideology or believe in antisemitic conspiracy myths. The idea that Germany's borders should be extended to include territories in Eastern Europe, which were occupied under Nazi rule that ended in 1945, is also found in its milieu. How dangerous are the Reichsbürger? In recent years, a number of serious crimes have been attributed to Reichsbürger. Several have stood trial for murder or attempted murder. The crimes registered by the domestic intelligence service rose sharply between 2020 and 2021. Reinfrank said that militancy is already rooted in the Reichsbürgers' ideology. "Because Reichsbürger do not recognize the constitution and the legitimacy of the security authorities, their ideology legitimizes them to act with violence." "These are not people who commit random attacks. They want to specifically attack the basic state order, like elected local politicians," Reinfrank explained. The past three years of protests against the COVID-19 restrictions led to radicalization and an increase in the number of supporters of Reichsbürger ideology. For example, at a demonstration by the group "Freie Geister" (free spirits), protesters held a banner that read: "Sovereignty. For the freedom of our country." "The scene has become radicalized. People are becoming more receptive to the core idea of the Reichsbürger, that Germany is not free and the elected government is not sovereign," Reinfrank said. A post on Presskit Facebook page announces that Julian Assange’s defence has filed an appeal against the UK to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to prevent his extradition to the US, which was authorised in June by then British Home Secretary Priti Patel. An ECHR ruling could order the extradition to be blocked.
Assange, 51, is wanted by U.S. authorities on 18 counts, including one under a spying act, relating to WikiLeaks' release of vast troves of confidential U.S. military records and diplomatic cables which Washington said had put lives in danger. Six of the 12 nuclear reactors in France that were found to have corrosion issues in May have been repaired and will be restarted soon, French Energy Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher has revealed. She told France Inter radio on Wednesday that, at the moment, there was “no reason” to believe that energy operator EDF would not be able to meet the schedule for restarting all shutdown reactors before winter.
Earlier, media reports stated that EDF had hired about 100 American welders from Westinghouse in order to repair the power units on time. France generates roughly 70% of its electricity from a nuclear fleet of 56 reactors, all operated by EDF. However, many of them have been closed down for maintenance, some due to corrosion-related issues. Currently, only 31 units are reportedly operating. EDF has pledged to restart all shutdown reactors before winter to avoid power shortages in the country. However, since October 6, there have been strikes among EDF employees involved in repair work at 19 reactors, delaying maintenance by several weeks. Last month, the French national electricity grid operator RTE warned that it would not rule out the risk of blackouts this winter due to prolonged strikes halting the repair. According to RTE, outages could only be avoided if power consumption was reduced by 1% to 5%, while in the event of an extremely cold winter – by 15%. Failure to restart the plants on time could have “heavy consequences” for power supply over the winter period, the operator has warned. |
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