Something remarkable happened in Hong Kong’s decadeslong LGBTQ rights movement in recent months, though it is unclear what it means for the future. Hong Kong’s courts issued several rulings in favor of granting LGBTQ rights — including no longer requiring conversion surgery to change their gender on ID cards, allowing same-sex couples to apply for subsidized public housing together, and perhaps the most important by the city’s highest court — ordering the government to come up with a framework within two years to recognize same-sex partnerships. Additionally, the government last month allowed the Gay Games, an international sports event for LGBTQ athletes, to be held in Hong Kong — a first for the city and Asia. "In general, [LGBTQ rights] are progressing. ... It’s pointing in the right direction," said Jerome Yau, co-founder of Hong Kong Marriage Equality, a group dedicated to eliminating discrimination against same-sex couples. "The government is now legally obliged to come up with a framework to legally recognize same-sex marriage by October 2025. … So, something has to happen in two years. That’s a very significant decision." While that ruling and other recent developments are seen as achievements, there are worries that government hesitation, possible intervention by Beijing, and Christian opposition – could prevent the city from becoming the next place in Asia, after Taiwan and Nepal, to grant equal rights to same-sex couples, including the right to get married. "We’re in a rather complicated situation," Yau said. "We have to tread very carefully." The government, considered conservative in advancing LGBTQ legislation even before Hong Kong’s handover to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, has given no indication of how it would carry out the top court’s ruling. The Housing Authority, meanwhile, has appealed to overturn the housing rulings issued by lower courts. At the same time, anti-gay religious opponents, including a lawmaker, have protested the games and the legalization of same-sex marriage, alleging they could threaten national security. The controversial national security law passed in 2020 has been used to jail people on charges of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces. Additionally, the annual Hong Kong Pride Parade, which used to attract thousands of participants to march on the city’s streets, was not held again this year, despite the end of COVID restrictions. Instead, an indoor exhibition was held. "With all these developments, sometimes you see the government take one step forward and walk two steps backwards. We feel disappointed," said Paul Choi, an LGBTQ rights advocate. Hong Kong’s courts and public opinion may be moving at a faster pace than the government seems willing to. A survey conducted by three universities earlier this year found that 60% of Hong Kongers said they supported same-sex marriage, up from 50% in 2017 and 38% in 2013. At the same time, the percentage of Hong Kong residents who said they were unaccepting of gay men and lesbians dropped significantly — from 32% in 2013, to 13% this year, according to the survey. The study’s researchers attributed the change in attitude to favorable court rulings, more jurisdictions around the world legalizing same-sex marriage and increasing representation of lesbians and gay men in the media. This includes the recently held Hong Kong Lesbian & Gay Film Festival, the longest running of its kind in Asia. Now, many are waiting to see if the government will keep pace. There are concerns it will drag its feet or allow only separate and partial rights. Same-sex couples who got married abroad, including simply on Zoom calls with U.S. states that allow remote marriage registration, already qualify for dependent visas, civil-servant spousal benefits, and joint tax filing. But LGBTQ community members said they want equal rights, arguing the city’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, promises all Hong Kong residents "shall be equal before the law." They said creating a separate status for them will not grant them the same rights heterosexual couples enjoy. "Think about it, as a citizen, I’m born and grew up here and want to get married. Why do I have to travel somewhere else to get married?" asked Choi, who recently married his partner in Melbourne, Australia. They have had to create a will and prepare power of attorney documents, although they still don’t know if they can visit each other in a hospital as family members or make medical decisions for each other if needed. There are also fears that a tightening of restrictions on LGBTQ groups in mainland China in recent years could spread to Hong Kong, especially given lingering government worries about a return of the widespread and sometimes violent pro-democracy protests seen here in 2019. "There's no one threatening us, but the biggest problem we’re facing right now is that when we want to hold events [like the pride parade], we have people telling us maybe it’s not a great idea," said Alan Hau, deacon of the LGBTQ-inclusive Blessed Ministry Community Church. Yau sounded hopeful, though, pointing out that another gay pride event, Pink Dot, has received permission to be held in a popular gathering spot. "We still have space to do things, which unfortunately is a whole different situation across the border. We should treasure this space," Yau said. "Things are happening. … It’s just that things are not moving at a faster pace. Let’s see how things will go in the next two years."
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News has been spreading throughout the media about a “disease outbreak” in China. For many, this brings back bad memories. The illness, described as a form of pneumonia, has reportedly gone widespread very quickly, triggering comparisons to how the Covid-19 pandemic emerged. As with the coronavirus, it was not long before there followed accusations of a government cover-up of the extent of the spread.
Cases of the same illness occurring outside of China have been the target of media attention, such as those in Denmark and the US, as has the World Health Organization’s request for more information and Beijing’s response. In reality, there doesn’t appear to be that much to worry about this time around. The pathogen responsible has already been determined not to be a novel virus and therefore not posing a distinctive new threat to humans the way Covid did. Known as “white lung syndrome,” it is a form of pneumonia that is resistant to some antibiotics and usually causes mild flu-like symptoms. In fact, the aforementioned Denmark suffers nationwide outbreaks every few years. So, rather than a mysterious political conspiracy wrapped in secrecy and malign intentions, this outbreak has a much simpler explanation: China is facing its first winter after having opened up from its zero-Covid policy and therefore old illnesses are reasserting themselves. But that won’t stop the scaremongering. Throughout history, it has been a human trait to scapegoat a group of 'others' when a disease emerged to threaten the community. Humans are tribalistic creatures, and each social group usually bonds together through a commonly held sense of values and customs, which are deemed superior to those of outsider groups. Disease, however, as abundant as it always has been, contravenes the group’s collective sense of self-esteem, causes misery and consequentially demands accountability on a political level. Because of this, it becomes habitual of human thinking to deflect the origins of a disease outbreak on an outsider group and to frame it as an invasive force which challenges the values they hold, and therefore could not have come from themselves. This mode of thinking is especially relevant in the East-West geopolitical dynamic, whereby Western countries hold themselves to be inherently superior and the ultimate standard of civilization in the world. In such thinking, most of the East, be it Asia or the Middle East, is deemed uncivilized, inferior and brutal. This mode of thinking is only confirmed by popular stereotypes, rather than introspecting material, economic and social realities. As a result, it has become commonplace to scapegoat the Eastern world, especially a large and powerful country like China – which happens to also a be a geopolitical adversary to the main Western power, the US – as being a source of disease outbreaks 'inflicted' upon the West. This was the narrative which took hold during the Covid-19 pandemic, as Western media and governments scrambled to deflect attention from unpopular decisions and their dramatic consequences. They sought to blame the Chinese government’s negligence, malice or both, for Covid, and propping up that narrative was an astronomical amount of racism which sought to play on stereotypes about Chinese culinary habits and hygiene, perfectly in line with the West-East mentality of Oriental 'inferiority'. Anti-communism, especially in the US, was conveniently layered on top of these prejudices, concealing them in a somewhat acceptable manner. Thus, the science of how Covid spreads was ignored in favor of a dramatic political blame game, which was aggressively amplified by the Trump administration. This time around, there won’t be a new pandemic, but it’s easy to draw false comparisons. It’s a basic fact that for the past three years China has lived under a strict zero-Covid regime which often entailed extreme precautions to prevent the spread of the disease. Entire major cities such as Shanghai found themselves in lockdown, and these restrictions only became more tedious as Covid variants became more transmissive. Because of this, there was no space in the disease ecosystem for flu and other less sensational illnesses, as they were jammed between the rock and hard place of Covid and all these protection measures. Therefore, as soon as China abandoned these restrictions, with the coronavirus having swept through the population, the winter season meant the less severe viruses could spread their wings again. Despite this, we are likely to see more media headlines about the scary new “Chinese disease,” because fear of disease, and especially fear of disease linked to a fear of China, sells well. Even though this development is a nothingburger, expect some close coverage, baseless speculations, even outright propaganda and hearsay about how things are worse than they seem, how the Communist Party is covering up deaths, how statistics are rigged, hospitals are full, etc. – we’ve heard it all before. The Covid pandemic has been a lesson in how diseases can be politically weaponized to suit an agenda, and in this case it’s happening again at a smaller scale. At the beginning of this week, foreign ministers from a group of Muslim-majority countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the Palestinian National Authority, and Indonesia travelled to China in order to seek support for a ceasefire in the ongoing Gaza war.
The unconditional backing of Israel by the United States and its allies has tanked their credibility across the Islamic world, and Beijing has positioned itself as an advocate of peace when others are not willing to take up that role. It is curious that within the following few days, a report was released by Human Rights Watch, accusing China of expanding its alleged campaign of closing down and repurposing mosques into regions other than Xinjiang – which had so far been the focus of accusations that Beijing is cracking down on the predominantly Muslim Uighur minority. Even those allegations had been somewhat on the backburner in the establishment media lately, but the HRW report was quickly picked up and amplified. Although relations between the US and China have somewhat calmed down, it is obvious that Washington does not want to see Beijing increase its influence in the Muslim world, as that would inevitably come at the expense of American clout. The attempt to draw attention back to China’s alleged repression of its Muslim population, while underreporting Israel’s devastating attack on the (also Muslim) population of Gaza, is an exercise in deflection and part of the ongoing narrative war between China and the US. Be it about Muslims or not, the Xinjiang issue has long been a key component of that struggle for influence. The Uighur minority has, since 2018, been a tool of “atrocity propaganda” used to wage public relations offensives against China. It is a means to an end, which often disappears and resurfaces in the media, coinciding with the ebb and flow of anti-Beijing rhetoric coming from the US administration or the State Department. This includes using it to turn public opinion against Beijing in selected countries, including allies, or to manufacture consent for policies aimed at supply chain shifts or “decoupling,” through the accusation of forced labor, especially in the fields of key agricultural goods, polysilicon and solar panels, or to attempt to embarrass China diplomatically at the UN, or to push for boycotting events such as the Winter Olympics. This is an incredibly opportunistic attitude to something Beijing’s detractors claim is a “genocide.” Since late 2021, the Biden administration has largely ignored the issue and it has fallen off the international agenda, precisely because Washington had gotten the sanctions they wanted from it at the time. However, the Israel-Gaza conflict introduces a new dynamic whereby the US and its allies are dramatically losing face and credibility among Muslim nations because they are backing Israel unconditionally in the wholesale slaughter of Palestinians. From a geopolitical point of view, such a policy pathway is actually strategically disastrous because it alienates the entire Global South, serves as a beacon in projecting US hypocrisy and worse still, directly empowers China as a competitor. So when you are faced with a situation whereby Beijing is gaining diplomatic capital over your own failures, what do you do? You desperately aim to deflect by trying to draw attention to another issue in the attempt to smear Beijing: Xinjiang and the Uighurs. Now as it happens, Muslim countries mostly ignore US-led propaganda over the Xinjiang issue, because they see it for what it is and also share a common norm of respect for national sovereignty with Beijing, which is politically beneficial for them. The only Muslim nation who has ever made public comment about it is Türkiye, because Uighurs are a Turkic ethnic group and the issues is viewed through the lens of Ankara’s Pan-Turk ideology. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still likely to ignore the issue, or only involve himself in it based on what he can gain. On the other hand, the Gulf States, the key US allies in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, support China’s position, and the Gaza issue is putting them under pressure regarding their relations with the US and the decision to normalize relations with Israel. So suddenly we are seeing a resurgence of Xinjiang material because the US, even if it cannot sway their governments, wants to kindle the anger of Muslim populations about another issue instead and diminish China’s credibility. Although this is less likely in Arab States, it could cause public opinion ruptures in key Asian Islamic countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, where significant resources were placed by organizations such as the BBC in relaying Xinjiang-related content in their respective languages. But the question is, will this campaign succeed? It might be worth remembering that Xinjiang is an artificially imposed issue pushed “top-down” by governments and the media, whereas Palestine is a grassroots issue pushing from the bottom up, aspects of which media and politicians endeavor to selectively ignore. China’s heavy-handed management of Uighurs in Xinjiang is not really a genocide, and it will never rank on the same level of severity as the outright bombardment and mass killing of Palestinians, no matter how hard you try. The history of Taiwan is a complex and multifaceted story that spans centuries, shaped by the interactions of various indigenous cultures, colonial powers, and geopolitical forces. Here is an overview of key events in the founding and existence of Taiwan: Indigenous Peoples: Taiwan's history begins with its indigenous peoples, who have inhabited the island for thousands of years. Austronesian-speaking tribes, including the Pingpu and Formosan peoples, were the first to settle in Taiwan. They established unique cultures and societies, living off the island's abundant natural resources. Dutch and Spanish Colonization (17th Century): In the 17th century, European powers began to take an interest in Taiwan. The Dutch East India Company established a foothold in southern Taiwan in the early 17th century, followed by the Spanish in the north. The indigenous peoples resisted these foreign incursions, leading to conflicts. Ming Loyalists and Qing Dynasty (17th-19th Century): The Ming Dynasty loyalists, led by Zheng Chenggong (Koxinga), expelled the Dutch from Taiwan in 1662. However, the Ming forces' rule was short-lived, as the Qing Dynasty defeated Koxinga's descendants and incorporated Taiwan into its empire in 1683. Taiwan remained a part of the Qing Dynasty for the next two centuries. Japanese Rule (1895-1945): In 1895, after the First Sino-Japanese War, the Treaty of Shimonoseki ceded Taiwan to Japan. The Japanese colonial period saw significant economic and infrastructural development but was marked by strict authoritarian rule and the suppression of local cultures. Taiwan played a role in World War II, particularly during the Pacific War. The story of Taiwan's founding and existence is closely intertwined with the political career of Chiang Kai-shek, a prominent figure in Chinese history. Here is a more detailed account that highlights Chiang Kai-shek's role: Early 20th Century: As the Qing Dynasty collapsed, China went through a series of internal conflicts and foreign invasions. Amidst this turbulence, Chiang Kai-shek rose to prominence within the Kuomintang (KMT), the Nationalist Party of China, under the leadership of Sun Yat-sen. Northern Expedition (1926-1928): Chiang Kai-shek played a crucial role in the Northern Expedition, a military campaign launched by the KMT to reunify China. During this campaign, the KMT sought to eliminate the warlords and unify the country under its rule. Chiang Kai-shek emerged as the leader of the National Revolutionary Army and successfully achieved several military victories. Shanghai Massacre (1927): In 1927, Chiang Kai-shek turned against his Communist allies, leading to the Shanghai Massacre. This marked the beginning of a split between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Chiang's KMT established the Republic of China (ROC) with its capital in Nanjing, while the CCP retreated to rural areas to continue its revolutionary activities. Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945): During the Second Sino-Japanese War, Chiang Kai-shek led China in resisting the Japanese invasion. The war severely strained China's resources and infrastructure, and the KMT government retreated to Chongqing, where it continued to resist Japanese aggression. World War II and Post-War Period: At the end of World War II, Japan's defeat resulted in the return of Taiwan to Chinese control. The Allied forces, led by the ROC, took control of Taiwan, ending fifty years of Japanese rule. Chinese Civil War (1927-1949): The Chinese Civil War resumed after World War II between the KMT and the CCP. Despite receiving substantial aid from the United States, the KMT faced internal corruption and military setbacks. By 1949, the CCP, under Mao Zedong, emerged victorious, and Chiang Kai-shek retreated with the remnants of the KMT to Taiwan. Chinese Nationalist Rule (1945-1949): After Japan's defeat in 1945, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China (ROC), led by the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT). Initially, the KMT administration faced challenges, including social unrest and conflicts with the local population. The ROC retained control of Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War, which concluded in 1949 with the Communist victory on the mainland. Cold War and International Recognition (1949-1971): During the Cold War, Taiwan became a key ally of the United States and was recognized by many Western countries as the legitimate government of China. The ROC held the Chinese seat at the United Nations until 1971 when the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 2758, recognizing the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the only legitimate representative of China. Establishment of the Republic of China on Taiwan (1949):
In 1949, Chiang Kai-shek proclaimed Taipei as the temporary capital of the Republic of China. The KMT government declared itself the legitimate government of all of China, despite controlling only Taiwan and a few surrounding islands. Authoritarian Rule and Economic Development: Chiang Kai-shek established an authoritarian regime in Taiwan. While political freedoms were restricted, he initiated economic reforms that transformed Taiwan from an agrarian society into an industrialized powerhouse. Land reforms, infrastructure development, and an emphasis on education played key roles in this economic transformation. Chiang Ching-kuo and Democratization: Chiang Kai-shek's son, Chiang Ching-kuo, succeeded him in 1975. Under Chiang Ching-kuo's leadership, Taiwan gradually transitioned to democracy. Political reforms allowed for multiparty elections, and in 1996, Taiwan held its first direct presidential election, marking a significant milestone in the island's democratization. Chiang Kai-shek's legacy remains complex, with opinions divided on his contributions to Taiwan's development and the authoritarian nature of his rule. Today, Taiwan stands as a vibrant democracy with a unique history shaped by its complex relationship with China and the legacy of leaders like Chiang Kai-shek. Modern Taiwan (Post-1971): Following its expulsion from the UN, Taiwan continued to develop as an economic powerhouse. The island underwent a significant political transformation in the late 20th century, transitioning from authoritarian rule to democracy. Reforms initiated by leaders such as Chiang Ching-kuo and Lee Teng-hui paved the way for multiparty elections, and in 2000, Taiwan elected its first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian. Today, Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with a diverse cultural heritage and a thriving economy. However, its political status remains a contentious issue, with the PRC claiming sovereignty over the island and the international community maintaining a complex relationship with both Taiwan and China. The journalistic cliché that World War III is already underway has often circulated from one publication or another for decades. Indeed, since the beginning of the 21st century, when the US was attacked on 11 September 2001, people have been talking about a clash of civilizations as a new form of global conflict. Then, Washington's declared "war on terror" got bogged down in the Middle East before disappearing from the agenda altogether. Instead, the "good old" rivalry between the major countries was gradually revived, first in the political, propaganda and economic spheres, but with an increasingly pronounced military and force element. This was accompanied by warnings of the risk of a World War III in the classic sense of the last century. Such considerations, however, remained notional. Today, the idea of a "World War III " is fathomable. Nevertheless, a similar situation to World Wars I and II seems inadmissible at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, although some commentators see similar features in the armed conflict in Ukraine. Structurally, however, the state of affairs is very different. The presence of nuclear weapons in the hands of the world's major players and a very complex range of significant and diverse players in international politics rule out (and make highly unlikely) a head-on collision between the major powers or their blocs, as was the case in the last century. However, the changes taking place on the world stage and in the balance of power are so serious that they are "worthy" of a confrontation on the scale of a world war. In the past, such shifts have led to major military clashes. However, now the "world war" that some repeatedly talk about is a chain of large but localized confrontations, each of which in one way or another involves the main players, balances on the verge of spilling over from the original zone, and is indirectly linked to other hotbeds of instability. This sequence of military events began with the Middle East conflicts of the last decade (Yemen and Syria), continued in Ukraine since 2014, then the South Caucasus and now Palestine. It is clearly too early to put an end to this list. End of status quo means world entering long period of turmoilInternational colleagues have already pointed out that in the context of the disappearance of former frameworks and constraints (the very decline of the world order, which now seems to be universally recognized), dormant conflicts and disputes are almost inevitably resurfacing. What has been held back by the pre-existing arrangements is erupting. In principle, everything is quite traditional; it was so before and it will be so after. The ideologization of world politics in the twentieth century meant that the end of that political period was very ideological in itself. The view that humanity has found the optimal political model, which will turn the page on previous confrontations, has triumphed. This is the only way to explain, for example, the belief that the contours of state borders will not change in the 21st century (or only by mutual agreement), because it has been decided and established that way. The historical experience of Europe and other continents in every historical period does not support such an assumption – borders have always changed fundamentally. And shifts in the balance of power and opportunity inevitably give rise to the desire to move territorial boundaries.
Another thing is that the importance of territories is different now than it was in the past. Direct control of certain spaces can now have more costs than benefits, while indirect influence is much more effective. Although it is worth noting that 15-20 years ago, at the height of economic and political globalization, it was often argued that in a fully interconnected 'flat' world, geographical and material proximity no longer mattered. The pandemic was the first and most vivid argument against this approach. The current chain of crises has forced a return to more classical ideas about the role of subordination between the regional and the global. The disappearance of the status quo means that the world has entered a long period of turmoil in which new frameworks have not yet been established (and it is not clear when they will be) and the old ones are no longer working. The formal end of the era of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (Russia has withdrawn from it, the other countries have announced the suspension of their participation) is an example of the dismantling of existing institutions. The unprecedented intensity of the wave of assaults on the UN from all sides is an attack on the main bastion of world order established after 1945. The current "World War III" is likely to endure over a long timeframe and be scattered in terms of locations. But based on its results – and there will be some – a different structure of international organizations will emerge. This is always the case. This does not mean that the UN, for example, will disappear, but there will definitely be a profound correction of the principles on which it operates. Chinese financial institutions lent $1.34 trillion to developing countries from 2000 to 2021, U.S. researchers at AidData said in a report that showed the world's biggest bilateral lender switching from infrastructure to rescue lending.
While lending commitments peaked at almost $136 billion in 2016, China still committed to almost $80 billion of loans and grants in 2021 according to the data, which captures almost 21,000 projects in 165 low and middle income countries as probably the most comprehensive dataset of its type. Chinese financial institutions lent $1.34 trillion to developing countries from 2000 to 2021, U.S. researchers at AidData said in a report that showed the world's biggest bilateral lender switching from infrastructure to rescue lending. While lending commitments peaked at almost $136 billion in 2016, China still committed to almost $80 billion of loans and grants in 2021 according to the data, which captures almost 21,000 projects in 165 low and middle income countries as probably the most comprehensive dataset of its type. The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which manages China's foreign currency reserves, accounted for more than half of lending in 2021, almost all bailout lending. "Beijing is navigating an unfamiliar and uncomfortable role — as the world's largest official debt collector," said the report by AidData, a research lab at William and Mary university. Much of China's growing rescue lending is denominated in renminbi, the report found, with loans in the Chinese currency overtaking U.S. dollars in 2020. Overdue payments to Chinese lenders have also risen. One way China is managing repayment risk is through foreign currency cash escrow accounts it controls, AidData said. The arrangement is controversial because it gives China debt seniority, meaning other lenders, including multilateral development banks, could get paid second during any coordinated debt relief. AidData identified 15 countries, primarily in Africa, with escrow accounts totaling a combined $2.5 billion at their peak in June 2023. Brad Parks, the study's lead author, said they were not able to identify all such accounts, as they are normally kept private. He noted, though, that they had found collateralized loans worth $614 billion and that cash was the main source of collateral required by Chinese lenders, indicating that the amount in escrow accounts could be far higher than $2.5 billion. China is also working more with multilateral lenders and Western commercial banks. Half of its non-emergency lending in 2021 was syndicated loans, 80% of that alongside Western banks and international financial institutions. The destinations of Chinese overseas lending have also changed. Loan commitments to African countries fell from 31% of the total in 2018 to 12% in 2021, while lending to European countries almost quadrupled to 23%. A different dataset showed loan commitments to African countries falling to a 20-year low in 2022. The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May. There’s an ongoing property crisis, with shares of Evergrande Group—China’s second-largest property developer and the world’s most indebted—halting trading last Thursday after its founder and chairman was reportedly taken into police custody for unknown reasons. Against this backdrop, gold has emerged as a preferred investment alternative, acting as a hedge against financial volatility. Gold prices in China have soared as a result, hitting a historic relative high with a more than $100 premium per ounce over metal prices in New York or London, according to Bloomberg. Data showing a 40% hike in withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and a 15% increase in imports in August further underscore this trend. Looking ahead, analysts predict sustained demand for the yellow metal amid not just a depreciating yuan and shaky real estate market but also falling bond yields. The gold buying spree appears to represent an investment move—sales of bars and coins are up 30% compared to last year—but rising prices are also tempting jewelry buyers to make early purchases ahead of the busy Lunar New Year buying season. Official Gold Reserves At A New Record High?It’s not just China’s retail investors. The People’s Bank of China also continues to diversify its reserves with gold, so much so that one expert believes total official gold holdings by central banks have touched a new all-time high. Jan Nieuwenhuijs, writing for Gainesville Coins, estimates that global gold reserves peaked at 38,764 metric tons in June, surpassing the previous 1965 record by as much as 400 tons. Nieuwenhuijs’s estimate, which accounts for unreported purchases unlike the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) calculations, shows a notable increase in gold holdings since the 2008 financial crisis, as you can see in the chart below. This reflects what he calls a “desire by central banks the world over to diversify away from the U.S. dollar with its ever more evident counterparty risks.” Costco—Yes, That Costco—Is Selling Out Of Gold Bars. Why Not Gold ETFs? Costco has recently added one-ounce gold bars to its online inventory, selling out within hours of restocking. According to CNBC, the retail behemoth offers bars from South Africa’s Rand Refinery and Swiss supplier PAMP Suisse, at prices slightly below the market rate of around $1,900. The offer is available only to the company’s 66 million paying members, creating an exclusive buying opportunity. During the most recent earnings call, Costco CFO Richard Galanti said that the gold bars were selling like hotcakes, commenting that as soon as they’re listed on the company’s website, “they’re typically gone within a few hours, and we limit two per member.” Interestingly, the enthusiastic demand from Costco buyers contrasts significantly with dwindling holdings found in total known physical gold-backed ETFs. As I shared with you recently, holdings have continued to decline since June—and, before that, since April 2022—even as the price of the yellow metal has held up admirably against a strong U.S. dollar and sky-high bond yields. Last week, the price of gold dipped below $1,900 for the first time since August, but if Treasury yields continue to soar through October, it could discourage casual gold investors, potentially driving prices down toward the $1,800 mark. But then, the last time yields were this high—in September 2007—gold was trading at around $750. So again, the metal has been remarkably resilient in a very challenging monetary environment.
With only 24 world leaders in attendance, compared to the 37 who had attended the last BRI Forum, Xi was keen to showcase that China is open for business at a time when concerns are rising about the health of Chinese economy. Promising to "comprehensively remove restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector," the Chinese leader talked of his intent to focus on "cross-border trade and investment in services and market access for digital products."
This was China's first major international event since coming out of around three years of pandemic lockdown in January 2023 and was a celebration of one of Xi's signature projects. Not surprisingly, he was gung-ho about the achievements of BRI as he underlined how his initiative has helped the developing world by making infrastructure and connectivity the centerpiece of emerging global economic discourse. He outlined how China has "endeavored to build a global network of connectivity consisting of economic corridors, international transportation routes and information highway as well as railways, roads, airports, ports, pipelines and power grids," thereby boosting "the flow of goods, capital, technologies and human resources among countries involved and injected fresh vitality into the millennia-old Silk Road in the new era." There is no doubt that BRI has been an innovative idea to energize the next stage of economic globalisation and, for a large part of the world left outside the global economic order, this was a timely initiative which, by mobilising as much as $1 trillion in finance, allowed for new economic possibilities to emerge. But it was the operationalization of the idea that left much to be desired as several nations got saddled with huge debt even as the financial and environmental sustainability of many projects brought to the fore the vulnerabilities of a centralised, top down project. With several infrastructure projects stuck and the Chinese economy slowing down in recent years, this forum was also Xi Jinping's attempt to demonstrate his nation's continued commitment to a project in which he is personally invested and which is as much about geopolitical positioning of China in the emerging global order as it is about geoeconomics. Facing a lot of flak for the performance of BRI, Xi tried to send out a message that he is willing to make some changes with a move to "high-quality" development, focused primarily on the digital economy and sustainable "green development" and underpinned by "the philosophy of open, green and clean cooperation, and the goal of pursuing high-standard, people-centered and sustainable cooperation." Integrity is the new buzzword as Xi talked of establishing "the Integrity and Compliance Evaluation System for companies involved in Belt and Road cooperation" and working "with international organizations to carry out research and training on promoting integrity in Belt and Road cooperation." This was part of his eight-point action plan that also includes supporting an open world economy, promoting green development, advancing scientific and technological innovation, supporting people-to-people exchanges, and strengthening institutional building for international Belt and Road cooperation. In light of the challenges facing the BRI projects worldwide and others launching connectivity alternatives to BRI, it was imperative for Xi Jinping to be seen as making amends. How these changes get reflected on the ground will shape the future of BRI and China's credibility as a provider of global public goods. But for Xi Jinping, this is also about offering an alternative to the US-led global order, and the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a Taliban delegation led by its acting minister of industry and commerce, Nooruddin Aziz, brought this into sharp relief. Putin, of course, was the star at the forum, getting a red carpet welcome from the hosts and applauding the "successes" of "our Chinese friends" in return. Russia has not officially signed on to the BRI but Putin made it a point to attend the forum in person despite not having travelled abroad since launching the Ukraine war. The Moscow-Beijing global alignment is unmistakable as they seek to challenge the West, also reflected in their explicit criticism of Israeli actions while refraining from condemning Hamas. Since the Ukraine crisis, where the West has tried to isolate Russia, China's embrace has become all-encompassing as it has emerged as Russia's most important trade partner, providing critical civilian and military goods that have sustained Russian economy and war operations. The other interesting presence was that of the Taliban, also meant to convey a message to the US that China will continue to move forward with its outreach to a pariah state, if only to scuttle Washington in achieving its objectives. Last month, China became the first country to send an ambassador to Afghanistan though Beijing is yet to give diplomatic recognition to the Taliban. China and Pakistan had also announced earlier this year that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would be extended to Afghanistan. Nothing much has come of it yet but China's support gives credibility to the Taliban's claims of being the only credible alternative in Afghanistan. China's celebration of a decade of BRI was more an attempt to showcase its own rising profile as the provider of an alternative to the US-led global order than to provide for the development needs of the Global South. But challenges for the BRI are mounting and Xi's words at the forum were an explicit acknowledgment that changes in Chinese approach would be necessary if the second decade of BRI is to see more accomplishments than the first. The former chairman of the state-owned Bank of China, has been arrested on suspicion of bribery and issuing illegal loans, the Xinhua news agency reported on Monday.
Liu Liange's arrest comes as part of a widespread anti-corruption crackdown by the authorities in Beijing. According to Xinhua, he has been accused of a range of crimes related to the illegal granting of loans and bringing banned publications into the country. The 62-year-old, who was Bank of China chairman from 2019 to 2023, is also alleged to have used his position to procure bribes and accept gifts and entertainment at private clubs and ski resorts. Liu announced in March that he was stepping down from his position, several weeks before the authorities revealed that he was facing corruption charges. His arrest, which was reportedly ordered by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP), comes around a week after Liu was formally expelled from the ruling Communist Party following an investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). Liu is the latest high-profile figure to be detained as part of widespread anti-corruption efforts ordered by President Xi Jinping into the country’s $60 trillion financial sector. Xi has made fighting corruption a key policy issue since becoming president a decade ago. The campaign enjoys considerable public support, although critics claim it allows the president to consolidate power by replacing rivals with loyalists in key positions. Wang Bin, the former chairman of China Life Insurance, was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole last month for involvement in bribery. Several other prominent banking or financial sector executives have been fined, imprisoned, or are under investigation for alleged crimes. EDITORIAL: China’s Belt and Road Initiative Sets Off Great Power Competition in the Pacific16/10/2023 As China marks the 10th anniversary of its Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the BRI, many are assessing the impact of its global push to promote connectivity and billions of dollars in deals for infrastructure projects. In the Pacific, Beijing’s BRI has set off a race of great power competition with the United States and other countries. Analysts say so far, of the more than 30 projects in the region that China has launched, the results have been mixed, with some serving as "showpieces" instead of contributing to Pacific countries’ development or economic needs. "The BRI in the Pacific is more of a political instrument than a genuine development mechanism," Mihai Sora, a research fellow in the Pacific Islands program at Lowy Institute in Australia, said in an interview. "In Australia, a lot of commentators view BRI projects as a vanguard for the Chinese government to build influence in the Pacific." In the run up to the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation that’ll take place in China this month, with more than 130 countries reportedly expected to attend, Chinese state media have published a series of reports highlighting the BRI’s success stories in the Pacific. Last month, in two separate articles, China’s state-run tabloid, the Global Times, highlighted how "the BRI vision is becoming a reality" in the Pacific Islands noting how China is providing medical services and professional training to local healthcare personnel in the Solomon Islands and how Beijing has helped the country to build a sports stadium for the upcoming Pacific Games. In another report, the Global Times stated that China’s cooperation with Pacific Island countries over the last 10 years focused on areas "such as humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and training. Most of the cooperation is reflected in infrastructure construction, tourism promotion and economic as well as trade issues under the BRI framework." But where Beijing sees progress and success, western think tanks and Pacific experts say the facts on the ground paint a different picture. In the 2023 Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment released earlier this year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based security think tank, found that BRI has had minimal impact on Pacific Island countries that receive Chinese loans or grants. According to the report, as of the end of 2021, 26 out of 33 projects were completed, but there has been little shift on investment or trade. Last month, China officially handed over the main stadium that it helped the Solomon Islands build for the upcoming Pacific Games to authorities in Honiara, making it the latest addition to the list of completed BRI projects in the Pacific region. "Exports from China to the South Pacific have increased twelvefold in value between 2000 and 2018, though the numbers for exports from Pacific Island countries to China have grown at a much less impressive rate," the study said. "Further major Chinese investment in the form of large-scale physical-infrastructure projects is unlikely given the existing debt burdens and the lack of demand for Chinese loans." Some experts in the Pacific tell that realities in some Pacific countries also contradict China’s success stories. Sandra Tarte, an associate professor in international relations at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji, said some Chinese investments in Fiji have resulted in big towers that were half-built and unfinished for a long period of time. Some tourism projects that were supposed to be supported by China received initial fanfare but never got off the ground. "There was an influx of investment from China at some point in Fiji, but the investors ran out of money," she said. "A lot of things like that have happened here." Power plays in the Pacific To counter China’s growing influence in the Pacific, major Pacific powers such as the U.S., Australia, and Japan have dedicated more resources and efforts to re-engage with Pacific Island countries. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden hosted a two-day summit with Pacific leaders in Washington, pledging to help countries in the region combat climate change and improve infrastructure with a $200 million package. Since May, the U.S. has signed defense cooperation and maritime agreements with Papua New Guinea and opened an expanded mission in the Pacific region as part of the efforts to compete for influence with Beijing. Apart from the U.S., Australia and Japan have both announced development packages to Pacific Island countries in recent months, with some of the support dedicated to deepening defense and security ties. Sora from the Lowy Institute says China’s push into the security space in the Pacific over the last few years, including the security pact that Beijing signed with the Solomon Islands in 2022, has raised concerns among democratic countries in the region. "Traditional partners like the U.S., Australia, Japan, and New Zealand have activated as quickly as they can to improve the quality of their relationship with the Pacific and to improve their offerings,". "Countries like the U.S. and Australia are trying to reassert the regional security order and make that contribution to international security but also look for ways to improve the economic prosperity of Pacific Island countries," Sora explained. Pacific countries’ collective voice However, western countries’ attempts to sign bilateral security agreements with Pacific countries have faced pushback in recent months. A proposed security treaty between Australia and Papua New Guinea has been delayed for several months due to ongoing domestic debate in Papua New Guinea. In addition, Vanuatu’s new Prime Minister Sato Kilman said in early September that the country needs to rethink its security agreement with Australia. To prevent their interests from being overshadowed by competition between China and the U.S., some analysts say Pacific Island nations have sought to project their collective priorities through multilateral institutions such as the Pacific Islands Forum and the United Nations. "Pacific Island countries will continue to demand that partners strike a balance between development and security assistance, as well as embrace their definition of security, which includes climate change," Parker Novak, a nonresident fellow at Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, told VOA in a written response. Other analysts say one way for countries in the region to assert their vision is to promote the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, a development initiative created by Pacific Island countries.
Tarte from Fiji’s University of the South Pacific says that approach could be a way to "reframe the debate" and avoid being dragged into the competing initiatives of the Indo-Pacific strategy and the BRI. Typhoon Koinu was headed toward southern China and Hong Kong Friday after bringing record-breaking winds and leaving one dead in Taiwan. Typhoon Koinu, after initially weakening, regained strength as it headed west across the South China Sea toward China's Guangdong province, the China Meteorological Administration said. The slow-moving storm was forecast to remain at sea, bringing rain to China's southern coast through the weekend as it passes south of Guangdong and Hong Kong. The storm was about 240 kilometers (150 miles) southeast of Hong Kong and moving at about 12 kilometers (7 miles) per hour Friday evening, the city government's Hong Kong Observatory said. It issued a strong wind warning and forecast squally showers, heavy at times, in the coming days. Hong Kong was hit by heavy rains about one month ago that killed at least two people and caused widespread flooding. Ferry service was suspended in parts of Guangdong province, and the city of Guangzhou canceled some flights and trains. Koinu, which means "puppy" in Japanese, brought pounding rain and wind gusts Thursday to southern and central Taiwan, downing trees and damaging buildings. An 84-year-old woman was killed by flying glass in Taichung city and about 400 others were injured around the island, Taiwan's fire department said.
A weather monitoring station on Taiwan's outlying Orchid Island measured a gust of 342.7 kph (212.9 mph) at 9:53 p.m. Wednesday, as well as sustained winds that reached 198.7 kph (123.5 kph) at 9:40 p.m. The device measuring the wind speeds broke shortly afterward, Taiwan's Central News Agency reported. Taiwan has revealed its first-ever domestically produced submarine, with leader Tsai Ing-wen hoping the move would make the island more “self-reliant.” The developer of the $1.5-billion sub previously dubbed it a “magical weapon in asymmetric warfare” with Beijing.
Tsai oversaw the vessel's launch ceremony on Thursday, set to be the first of eight new submarines to enter service by 2025. They will join just two other subs in Taipei’s fleet, both obtained from the Netherlands some four decades ago. “In the past, a domestically developed submarine was considered an impossible task. But, today, a submarine designed and manufactured by our country's people sits before our eyes,” she said, adding that “Taiwan must take this step and allow the self-reliant national defense policy to grow and flourish on our land.” The announcement comes amid repeated warnings from Taiwanese officials about Chinese military activity in the airspace and waters around the island, with Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng recently pointing to a string of “land, sea, air and amphibious” drills by the People’s Republic. The submarine project was launched in 2016 and has cost Taipei over $1.5 billion, with the first prototype named “Hai Kun” – or “mythical sea creature” in Chinese. Keeping with its moniker, the developer of the sub, CSBC Corp, has described the vessel as a “magical weapon in asymmetric warfare,” a claim echoed by Taiwan’s leader on Thursday. A representative for China’s Defense Ministry responded to the news during a daily press briefing later on Thursday. Asked about the new hardware and whether it could “prevent the People's Liberation Army from entering the Pacific” in the event of a conflict, spokesman Wu Qian dismissed the idea as “nonsense.” “It is just a mantis trying to use its arms to stop a chariot, and it will eventually lead to its own destruction,” Wu said, referring to Taiwan’s military modernization efforts. The official added: “No matter how many weapons the [Taiwanese] authorities build or purchase, they cannot stop the general trend of the reunification of the motherland.” Beijing views Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory, claiming the right to reunify with the island by force should it ever declare independence. Though few nations recognize Taipei as a sovereign state, the US and several allies maintain informal but strategic relations with the self-governing territory, frequently drawing the ire of China. The Chinese military has launched major wargames following high-level meetings between US and Taiwanese officials over the last year, including a massive simulated blockade after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in 2022. A similar demonstration was held last April following a sit-down between Pelosi’s successor, Representative Kevin McCarthy, and Tsai. Three Indian martial arts athletes from a region claimed by China have been forced to pull out of the Asian Games in Hangzhou after not receiving clearance from the host country, media reports say.
The three women, competing as wushu fighters, are from the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, a region claimed almost in full by Beijing as “South Tibet”. Wushu, or kung fu, is a multidisciplinary martial art that originated in China. According to the Hindustan Times newspaper, the trio were approved to take part by the Hangzhou Asian Games Organising Committee but were unable to download their accreditation cards, which act as visas to enter China. The rest of the 10-member squad along with the coaching staff left for the games in Hangzhou on Wednesday, the newspaper reported. Neither the Indian Olympic Association nor the Ministry of External Affairs immediately responded to requests for comment by the Agence France-Presse news agency. The Indian wushu team did not travel to the Chinese city of Chengdu for the World University Games in July after the same three athletes were issued stapled, rather than pasted, visas – an indication that Beijing does not recognise India’s territorial claim over Arunachal Pradesh. That move triggered angry reactions from India with the foreign ministry saying it was “unacceptable”. Arunachal Pradesh is on the other side of the Himalayas from Tibet and shares a common Buddhist cultural heritage with its northern neighbour. The Dalai Lama fled through the state in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in his homeland and has lived in India ever since. Beijing briefly occupied most of the territory in a bloody conflict three years after the Buddhist leader’s flight. This year, India reacted strongly after China renamed 11 places in the disputed region. New Delhi consistently maintains that the state has always been and will always be an “integral and inalienable part of India”. |
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