Despite ongoing peace talks, an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine appears nowhere in sight. And as Ukrainian cities are being attacked, a quieter pressure is growing in Russia, which is increasingly isolated on the international stage. Punishing sanctions are taking effect and dissent – which authorities are determined to crush – is rising, reportedly even in the Kremlin. As the war rumbles on, observers are asking: is Vladimir Putin’s position shaking?
The Russian president enjoys a solid level of support among legislators, as evidenced by a recent vote days before the war began to recognise the separatist, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics of Ukraine. Of 450 members of the Duma, 351 backed the move, in line with Putin’s approval. At the same time, Putin’s United Russia party has been accused of vote-rigging, keeping him in power for more than 20 years. However, some observers have suggested that with sanctions hitting the economy hard, a push to remove Putin from power may gather pace. Volodymyr Ishchenko, a Ukrainian sociologist who has studied revolutions in the post-Soviet arena, disagrees. “I don’t think that the revolution is the likeliest outcome of the sanctions,” he said, arguing that increased grievances are not enough to start a revolt. Rather, “a split among the elites, unity of the opposition, coordination and mobilisation structures” were needed. In the early 20th century, the Russian Empire went through two revolutions linked with unpopular wars – one in 1905 after the humiliating defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05, and another in 1917 during World War I. After the Soviet collapse, other newly-independent republics went through a string of popular uprisings, with governments overthrown in Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova. There were three revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and three more in Ukraine. Putin has spent a large part of the past two decades preparing himself against a so-called “colour revolution” such as the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, which he thought to be planned from Washington. This includes marginalising opposition figures such as the now-jailed Alexey Navalny, whose political movement has been outlawed but continues to operate and is helping organise the protests. “As for the opposition, it’s in a bad shape,” Ishchenko said. “Navalny’s movement is repressed. Besides, the opposition is split by the war. The Communists and many other parties who could ally with the opposition strongly support the war now.” Ishchenko added that the exodus of mostly anti-war Russians – estimated to be more than 200,000 people since February – has made mass revolt even more unlikely. Such a scenario would require exiles to keep effective contact with their homeland, which may prove difficult as travel is restricted and Russians without VPNs are blocked from social media. “The palace coup is more likely than a revolution now. Although, I am not sure that a possible elite conspiracy against Putin would make a move before a major defeat in Ukraine. “So, in the end, the balance of forces on Ukrainian battlefields would determine the possibility of either a coup, or revolution, or the survival and consolidation of Putin’s regime. Not the other way around.” If not a mass uprising, perhaps the oligarchs and officials in Putin’s inner circle, frustrated at the sanctions and unable to enjoy their yacht cruises off the south of France, may try to unseat the president.
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